tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-69053747091767069382024-02-08T10:24:58.156-05:00Baseball ArcadeA Blog of Baseball Musings and AnalysisAPODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-60931154077554078202013-12-09T12:57:00.000-05:002013-12-09T12:57:49.263-05:00Blog Update: A Very Brief InterruptionHowdy, folks. I just wanted to give an update on content this week here at Baseball Arcade.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>I'm moving this week. It was pretty much a complete surprise. We found out in the last week of November that we had to be out of our current place by December 31st, since it's being converted from a subdivided house to a single family residence.. Unfortunately, due to holiday travel plans, the actual move date has to be the 15th. Between the apartment hunting (which is now complete) and packing, I've had precious little time to actually write. As such, you can expect very little content on the blog this week as move prep ramps up to full speed.<br />
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I should be able to deliver one or two posts this week (one on the Mariners signing Robinson Cano and, hopefully, another on Roy Halladay's retirement and Hall of Fame resume). Other than that, expect a pretty quiet week. I should hopefully be back on schedule next week. Thanks for reading and for your patience.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-85260892841831800702013-12-06T12:00:00.000-05:002013-12-06T12:00:00.061-05:00Team Postmortem: Arizona Diamondbacks<b>Record:</b> 81-81, -10 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary: </b>The Arizona Diamondbacks were the big losers of the Dodgers' miraculous comeback season. On June 22nd, the Diamondbacks were 41-33 with a 6 game lead over in the division and a 9.5 game lead over the Dodgers. The Dbacks ended the year at precisely .500, 9 games back of those same Dodgers. Arizona took a small step backwards this season over last year, where the finished with an identical record but a better run differential at +46. They are still a young team with some very good players, such as Paul Goldschmit, so the season wasn't entirely a lost cause.<br />
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The Diamondbacks hit .259/.323/.391 in 2013, scoring 685 runs, making them just about average at 14th in baseball. However, it looks like they got a just a tad lucky with RISP as their 92 wRC+ drops them down to 19th. With RISP, that number was 95 and good for 13th in the game--so it's not a huge difference, but should account for the overall gap. The team had a solid walk rate at 8.2% (13th) along with the sixth lowest K% at 18.0%. That is some pretty impressive plate discipline, leading to a BB/K of 0.45 (5th). Unfortunately, they suffered from a severe lack of power wth an ISO of.133 (23rd). The offense was lead by a fantastic season by Paul Goldschmidt. The first baseman just keeps getting better; in 2013, he hit 302/.401/.551 with a wRC+ of 156. Goldschmidt tallied career bests in just about every category including HRs (36), ISO (.249), BB% (13.9%), K% (20.4%), and, unsurprisingly, fWAR (6.4). Another bright spot was the full-season debut of rookie outfielder A.J. Pollock. Pollock might not have the strongest bat, hitting only .269/.322/.409 with a wRC+ of 98, but he also played excellent defense (UZR/150 - 27.0), netting him a 3.6 fWAR. Rookie shortstop Didi Gregorious was also made a bit of an impression. While his overall wRC+ was a mere 91, he did post have one of the better walk rates among shortstops at 9.2% (5th amoung SS with 400 PAs) and did show a bit of gap power with an .120 , complimenting his excellent defense.<br />
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The bad news starts with Miguel Montero. After a fantastic 2012 where the catcher hit .286/.391/.438 with a 124 wRC+ and 4.6 fWAR, Montero fell apart this season. He hit only .230/.318/.344 with next to no power (.114 ISO after a .152 mark in 2012 and .187 in 2011), a wRC+ of 80 and mere 0.9 fWAR. That could be a significant problem for the Diamondbacks going forward as they committed 5 years and $60M to him after his 2012 season. The worst player on the team, however, was Jason Kubel. Kubel was certainly respectable enough in 2012 (1.6 fWAR, 30 HRs), but seemingly complete forgot how to play baseball in 2013. He hit .216/.293/.317 with terrible defense and was worth -1.7 fWAR before being designated for assignment and traded to the Indians.<br />
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While the offense had average production, the pitching staff was decidedly below. The Diamondbacks pitching staff allowed 695 runs, putting them 20th in baseball. Advanced metrics did not like them much better with a 4.04 FIP (22nd) and 3.83 xFIP (18th). The Arizona pitting staff didn't strike many batters out (7.33 K/9, 23rd), but they did do a decent job of limiting walks (2.92 BB/9, 13th) and were one of the best teams in the game at inducing groundballs (46%, 5th). The staff was lead by a surprise breakout season by sophomore Patrick Corbin. The lefty made 32 starts and threw 208.1 innings with a 3.41 ERA, 3.43 FIP and 3.7 fWAR. He had a 7.69 K/9 and a 2.33 Bb/9. Corbin did fade a bit down the stretch, posting a 3.87 FIP, 5.19 ERA and only 78 IP in the second half, after putting up 2.35/3.17/130.7 in the first. This isn't entirely surprising as the young lefty had far surpassed his previous high in innings pitched. While, Wade Miley took a step back from last years surprise performance, he was still solid enough with a 3.98 FIP and 3.77 xFIP for 2.0 fWAR.<br />
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Trevor Cahill, on the other hand,was a bit more of a disappointment. After posting a career best 2.9 fWAR, 3.85 FIP and 3.76 xFIP last season, Cahill saw those numbers worsen to 0.9, 4.26 and 4.11. His K/9 dropped from 7.02 to a mere 6.26, while his BB/9 rose from 3.33 to 3.99. Ian Kennedy was even worse. While he was durable enough, he also put up the worst numbers of his career for a full season. He pitched in 21 games, allowing a 5.23 ERA and 4.60 FIP and 0.6 fWAR, before being traded to the San Diego Padres (where he made 10 starts and accumulated a grand total of 0.0 fWAR).<br />
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And that's the Diamondbacks. They weren't terrible, but they weren't very good either. In a world where the Dodgers didn't decide to suddenly not suck, maybe they would have backed into the postseason. Even then, while anything can happen in October, it's unlikely they would have advanced very far. Arizona is probably not quite ready to push their chips to the center of the table yet, but 2015 could be a big season for them. By mid-season, both Skaags and top prospect Archie Bradley could be in the rotation providing the Diamondbacks pitching with a much needed boost. If Montero bounces back from his disappointing year, the Diamondbacks could find themselves in a position to make a run in 2016.<br />
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<b>Team MVP:</b> Paul Goldschmidt, 6.4 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP: </b>Jason Kubel, -1.7 fWAR<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm: </b>The Diamondbacks possess an excellent farm system, ranked 10th by Bleacher Report after the MiLB season. They were also ranked 9th by Baseball America's near-term value rankings. It's a pitcher-heavy system, boasting arms like Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley and having recently given Tyler Skaags a taste of the bigs. They do have a few intriguing bats like Matt Davidson, Chris Owings and 2012 top draft pick catcher Stryker Trahan.<br />
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Archie Bradley, 21 years old, is a right handed pitcher, the Diamondbacks' top prospect, and one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He has a power fastball that sits 92-95 mph and has, on occasion, hit 99. It's a true plus pitch with excellent downward movement. Bradley compliments that with an above-aver 12-6 curveball that flashes plus-plus potential at times. Lately, hes also been developing a changeup which looks to be an average pitch, though it possesses plus potential. Bradley spent 21 starts in AA in 2013 with an excellent 8.68 K/9, but struggled with command at times (not uncommon for young pitchers) with a 4.31 BB/9. He's open 2014 in AAA and, if he successfully refines his command, profiles as a true front of the rotation starter.<br />
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Braden Shipley us a 21-year-old right handed pitching prospect and was the Diamondbacks' first round pick in the 2013 drat. He has a fastball that sits 91-95 with solid late life. The real gem of his arsenal is his amazing changeup that profiles as plus-plus and sits in the low 80s with excellent late fade. This change was considered the best one available in the entire draft. He also has a curveball, but it is still a very unrefined pitch. Shipley spent his debut year making 12 starts between A- and A with a 9.08 K/9, 3.18 BB/9 and 4.99 ERA. He is still very raw, having only started pitching full-time two years ago after also playing shortstop, so the Dbacks will take it slow with him. Shipley has the upside of a #2 starter.<br />
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<b>Offseason Outlook:</b> The biggest way for the Diamondbacks to improve this offseason is to hope for improvements from the guys already on the roster, and the continued development of the farm system. The team, as presently constructed, is probably not close enough to being a top tier team to justify being aggressive on the market this year. As such, the Diamondbacks are better suited to stay in a holding pattern this offseason. It certainly seems that Kevin Towers sees things the same way, as then only move he's made was to unload reliever Heath Bell. If they do make an acquisition, they could really use a power-hitting outfielder or third baseman. The Diamondbacks lack power on the roster with the exception of Goldschmit and don't have much in the farm system either.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-55612642635610685292013-12-04T12:00:00.000-05:002013-12-04T12:00:07.626-05:00Team Postmortem: Los Angeles Angels<b>Record: </b>78-84, -4 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> The Angels' 2013 season was a disaster. An expensive disaster. Sure, Mike Trout is the absolute best player in the game, but the rest of them team tended to be either mediocre, over-paid, or both. The contracts to Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols are looking to be an even bigger mistakes than the most pessimistic could have predicted. The starting rotation--outside of, perhaps, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson--was underwhelming. Trout, as talented as he is, cannot win baseball games all by himself. But the devil (in this case, the Angels' GM, Jerry DiPoto) is in the details, so let's take a look.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>Truth be told, on the whole, the Angels' offense wasn't actually bad. They scored the seventh most runs in baseball with 733, ahead of the Rangers and behind the Indians. The team hit .269/.329/.414 for a wRC+ of 108 (5th). The Halos also had an excellent 8.4% walk rate (9th) and solid power (.150 ISO - 12th). The caveat here is that the superhuman abilities of Mike Trout skew the results. The Angels' offense produced 26.4 fWAR, good for seventh in baseball. However, if you remove Trout's insane 10.4 and replace him with a merely average 2 WAR outfielder (let's say Carlos Beltran or Michael Bourn), then the Angels are considerably less impressive at 18.0 fWAR (theoretically 20th), putting them in the company of teams like the Brewers and the Mets. While you certainly can't penalize the Angels for having a superstar like Trout, the rest of the offense was less than impressive.<br />
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Speaking of Trout, he hit .323/.432/.557 with a wRC+ of 176(!). That 176 was the second best mark in all of baseball; only Miguel Cabrera was better. Trout raised his walk rate from 10.5% last season to 15.4% and cut his strikeouts from 21.8% to 19.04%. He played great defense and stole 33 bases in 40 attempts. He hit 27 home runs. Mike Trout is 21 years old and not even in his prime yet!<br />
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The bad news for the Angels' offense was the incredibly disappointing seasons of Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. Hamilton had his worst season since 2009, hitting .250/.307/.432 with a wRC+ of a mere 104. His ISO was down to .182 after .292 last season. Hamilton was worth a mere 1.9 fWAR, despite being paid $15M and owed an additional $108M over the next four seasons. Albert Pujols was even more depressing. After being one of, if not the, best players in baseball from 2002-2010, Pujols had the worst season of his career in 2013. He hit only .258/.330/.437 with a wRC+ of 111 in 99 games before landing on the Disabled List with a torn plantar fascia in his left foot. Pujols was worth only 0.7 fWAR despite being paid $16M and having an additional $212M though 2021 left on his contract.<br />
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Unfortunately, the Angels' pitching staff did not have a Mike Trout equivalent to raise their collective numbers, which were just awful. They allowed 737 runs, putting them 24th in the majors. They had a 4.08 FIP (23rd) and 4.10 xFIP (27th). Their best starter was C.J. Wilson, who put up a 7.97 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 3.51 FIP, and 3.93 xFIP, culminating in a 3.3 fWAR, which does not a front-line starter make. Former ace Jered Weaver continued his decline, with a 3.82 FIP and 4.31 xFIP, and only pitching in 24 starts after hitting the DL with a fracture in his left elbow. After, that things get much worse. Garret Richards and Jason Vargas combined for 253.1 average innings. Joe Blanton put up a 5.66 ERA and 4.89 FIP in 20 starts, and Jerome Williams made 25 starts with a 5.06 ERA and 4.94 FIP. He had a mere 5.84 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9. Tommy Hanson (4.81 FIP, 17 starts) was little better.<br />
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Ultimately, the Angels were a bad, overpaid baseball team in 2013. It's hard to imagine them getting much better. The Pujols and Hamilton contracts are looking to be disasters that will drag the Angels down for years. The money owed to them (plus that needed to try to extend Mike Trout in the near future) severely hampers the organization's flexibility going forward, preventing them from making many moves to improve the team. Then again, that might be a good thing when GM Jerry DiPoto does things like trade excellent defensive center fielder Peter Bourjos plus one of their prospects for the mediocre Cardinals' third baseman David Freese and then says, "We feel like we're getting one of the most productive third base bats in baseball over the last three years." Speaking of prospects, the Angels aren't getting any help from the minors any time soon, as they possess the worst farm system in baseball. The window for contention the Angels paid so dearly to open may be closing sooner than they thought, and could stay shut for quite a while--Mike Trout or no.<br />
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<b>Team MVP:</b> Who do you think?, 10.4 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP:</b> Brendan Harris, -0.6 fWAR<br />
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Down on the Farm: Well, ladies and gentlemen, this is it. The worst farm system in baseball. Between trading away talent in attempts to contend and some poor drafting, the cupboard is nearly bare for the Angels. They have few pitching prospects and most of the ones they do have are very young and project to more likely be bullpen pieces. The system continues to get worse as the Angels recently sent #2 prospect Randal Grichuk to the Cardinals (where he'll slot in closer to #10, indicative of the Angels' system) in the David Freese/Peter Bourjos trade.<br />
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Kaleb Cowart is a 21-year-old switch-hitting third baseman who was the Angels' #1 prospect going into the season. Unfortunately, Cowart's stint at AA did not go well this season. He hit only .221/.279/.301 with a 65 wRC+. His power evaporated to the tune of a .065 ISO, after posting .167 and .186 in A+ and A over the last two seasons. He struggled with plate discipline, walking only 7% of the time while striking out at a 22.7% rate. Defensively, he projects to be slightly above average and possesses a strong throwing arm. Cowart is a lock to repeat AA next year and hopefully will fair better at the plate in his second go-around. Unless he does so, his prospect status will take a significant hit.<br />
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Taylor Lindsay, 21, is a second base prospect who spent the 2013 at AA. He hit .274/.339/.441 and a wRC+ of 119. Lindsay also hit 17 home runs, a career high. However, he doesn't project for big power, but is more of a gap-to-gap hitter. While he may have decent offensive potential, his defense is a significant question mark. His glovework is rough and his range is mediocre. He could develop into an average regular, but might be more of a utility player.<br />
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<b>Offseason Outlook</b>: The Angels entered the offseason needing a third baseman, and already they have certainly acquired... a guy. Who plays third base. So, mission accomplished.<br />
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It's a shame that Freese isn't actually very good. It's also a shame that the Angels gave up an excellent defensive center fielder and a prospect to get him. Of course, what the Angels really need this offseason is pitching. Starting pitching and lots of it. Unfortunately, the Halos don't have much room to manuver, don't have the money to sign any high-priced free agent starter, and don't have the assets to trade for a David Price. With a lot of the value signings like Josh Johnson and Dan Haren already off the board, the Angels will be left looking at a guy like Scott Kazmir or rolling the dice on Phil Hughes. Of course, who knows, Jerry DiPoto may end up doing something insane like sending Chris Ianetta plus a prospect to Boston in exchange for Ryan Dempster. Why not?APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-86626567922381052132013-12-02T12:00:00.000-05:002013-12-02T12:00:06.898-05:00Team Postmortem: San Francisco Giants<b> Record: </b>76-86, -62 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> From 2010 to 2012, the San Francisco Giants won 268 games. They won both their division and the World Series in 2010 and 2012. They were a dynasty in the making. Going into 2013, <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/preview13/story/_/page/13expertpicks/espn-expert-team-predictions-2013-baseball-season" target="_blank">35 of 43 experts on ESPN</a> predicted that the Giants would make the postseason. With that in mind, there is no way to look at their losing record and third place finish in the division to be anything to be anything but a bitter disappointment. So what happened to cause the team to go from winning 94 games one year ago to a mere 76 in 2013?<br />
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<a name='more'></a>In 2013, the Giants' offense scored 629 runs, good for a mere 21st in baseball. Meanwhile, in 2012 Giants' runners crossed the plate 718 times (12th). So what changed to cost the team nearly 100 runs? Honestly, I'm not entirely sure. They are walking at only a slightly lower rate (BB%: 7.6% in 2013, 7.8% in 2012), striking out a little less (K%: 17.5% vs 17.7%), and hitting with the virtually the same lack of power (ISO: 121 vs 128). Looking at the wRC+ for both editions of the club, they were essentially identical, with the 2012 squad coming in at 100 and this year's vintage scoring a 99. So what we're seeing is a virtually identical club that scored almost 100 runs less and dropped eight spots. Could the difference be sequencing? With runners in scoring position, the 2012 Giants hit for a .306 wOBA (20th in baseball) and a 95 wRC+ (15th). The 2013 club had a .310 wOBA (16th) and a 99 wRC+ (11th). No, I did not accidentally switch the years, the 2013 club was actually better with runners in scoring position. It is still unclear where the problems with the Giants' overall offense came from. Weird, huh?<br />
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Let's move on and look at some of the players. Hunter Pence led the offense with a career year, hitting .283/.339/.483 with 133 wRC+ and a 5.4 fWAR--a huge bounceback after a disappointing 1.6 fWAR in 2012. Brandon Belt finally had the breakout season Giants fans have been waiting for, hitting 17 HRs with a 139 wRC+ and 4.0 fWAR. Those were career bests in all categories; in fact, the only area he didn't post a best in was BB% at 9.1%. Meanwhile, Buster Posey hit .294/.371/.450 with 15 HRs for a 133 wRC+ and 4.8 fWAR. While those numbers are still crazy-good for a catcher, they are a let-down for Posey, who hit for a 163 wRC+ and 7.7 fWAR in 2012. There are certainly concerns that catching may be wearing Posey down--especially after his terrifying injury on a collision at the plate last year--and the Giants will probably move him off the position sooner rather than later. Pablo Sandoval (115 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR) is beginning to look like he'll never again be the monster he was in 2011, when he hit 23 HRs and a 149 wRC+. The biggest disappointment was probably Angel Pagan, who was limited to only 76 games with a hamstring tear. This limited him to a mere 1.6 fWAR after a 4.5 showing last year.<br />
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The Giants didn't fair much better on the mound either, particularly compared to 2012. Their pitching and defense allowed 691 Runs, goods for only 19th in Baseball this season. This stands in stark contrast to the Giants' reputation for excellent pitching over the past few years; in 2012, their 641 Runs Allowed was the 9th best mark. So what happened? The Giants posted a 4.00 ERA (22nd) versus a 3.80 FIP (12th). That's a pretty substantial case of under-performing peripherals. As a comparison, the 2012 club had a 3.68 ERA (7th) and a 3.78 FIP (9th). While the Giants' FIP was a hair worse, the ERA dropped significantly. The poster child for this turn of bad luck was Tim Lincecum. The Freak posted a second consecutive poor season going by ERA (4.37), but his peripherals--8.79 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, and 3.74 FIP--were much more encouraging. He will never be the 7.5 fWAR ace he was a few years ago, but he's better than he looked in 2013. Similarly, after years of outperforming his peripherals (as an example he posted a 3.89 FIP in 2009, but only a 2.89 ERA), the BABIP Gods seemed to desert Matt Cain. The righty posted his career-worst ERA at 4.00 and a nearly identical FIP of 3.93. The best news out of the Giants rotation was Madison Bumgarner, who had a fantastic season with a 8.90 K/9, 2.77 BB/9 and a 3.05 FIP (2.77 ERA, for what it's worth). The second best news? It was, at long last, the final year on the seven-year, $126M contract of Barry Zito, who posted a 5.74 ERA, 4.92 FIP, and -0.6 fWAR this season.<br />
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It was a disappointing season for San Fransisco, not matter how you look at it. The upside is they've still got a lot of talent on their roster. Bumgarner is a legitimate ace at the front of the rotation. Buster Posey, despite a down year by his standards, is still a superstar. Brandon Belt is still only 25, and seems to be breaking out. Angel Pagan should be healthy in 2014. Take all those factors, mix them together with some better luck--particularly in the starting rotation--and a few smart signings and they could find themselves in the running for a Wild Card slot next September. This was definitely one of those seasons that wasn't as bad as it looked.<br />
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<b>Team MVP:</b> Hunter Pence, 5.4 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP: </b>Barry Zito, -0.6 fWAR<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm:</b> The Giants farm system is, as a whole, ranked as mediocre to poor. Bleacher Reports' most recent rankings placed it at 26th, and Baseball America placed it 20th in terms of Near-Term Value. This isn't to say they've done a poor job of developing talent; the Giants have used many of their prospects to acquire key cogs in their World Series runs (such as Hunter Pence and Carlos Beltran). The remaining depth on the farm is rather thin. The Giants do possess a number of exciting pitching prospects in the lower levels, but have an almost complete dearth of positional players.<br />
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Kyle Crick, a 21-year-old right-handed pitcher, is probably the top prospect in the Giants system. He possess an excellent heavy fastball with easy 93-96mph velocity. He can also hit 97-98 at times. The rest of his repetoire consists of a potential plus changeup and a very promising slider. Crick spent most of the season at High-A where he showed both his promise and also how raw he still is. He showed amazing strikeout potential with a K/9 of 12.45, but struggled with command--particularly of his secondary pitches--with a 5.11 BB/9. He was limited to only 84.1 IP due to suffering from an oblique injury that cost him the first part of the season. The Giants will take their time with the talented youngster and let him develop his command. I wouldn't expect to see him in the Majors before 20-15 at the earliest. Given his injury and command issues, I would guess that the Giants will start him back at A+, but promote him quickly to AA.<br />
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Clayton Blackburn, 21, is a right-handed starting pitcher and is, in some ways, the yin to rotation-mate Crick's yang. Where Crick possesses a power fastball, Blackburn's offering sits at 91-93 mph. He has a deeper and more refined arsenal, including a two-seamer, curveball, and changeup, as well as a slider that is a bit behind his other pitches. While he doesn't have the raw strikeouts of Crick (9.34 K/9 in A+), he makes up for it with command of his pitches, pounding the strike zone and limiting walks (2.37 BB/9). His fastball possesses excellent movement and induces a lot of groundballs. The Giants seem to feel that he and Crick, with their differing styles, are good for each other. As a result, I wouldn't be surprised to see them continue to be promoted together until one or the other makes that untenable.<br />
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<b>Offseason Outlook</b>: The Giants have already been busy this offseason, at least in addressing their starting rotation. They resigned Tim Lincecum to a two-year, $35M deal. While looking at his ERA the past two seasons makes this seem like an insane overpay, the Giants are betting big that advanced metrics like xFIP are more predictive for The Freak. They also grabbed Tim Hudson on a 2/$23M contract. Hudson is coming off injury, but if he's healthy this could end up being a very solid deal. They are still in need of an upgrade in left field, allowing Gregor Blanco to move in the the fourth outfielder role. The Giants are probably out on the big ticket FAs like Sin-Soo Choo, but with guys like Chris Young already coming off the market, their options are running thin.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-48433153546379380332013-11-29T12:00:00.000-05:002013-12-09T13:02:43.380-05:00Team Postmortem: San Diego Padres<b>Record: </b>76-86, -82 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> In terms of the on-field product, it seems like the Padres were standing still this season. They finished with the exact same record as in 2012. However, the year should still be considered a step forward for the San Diego club, as they finally addressed their ownership issues in the preceding offseason and acquired a new CEO and GM, a pair that should hopefully be in place for a while going forward, giving the organization much needed stability. As such, while 2013 may be ultimately a lost year, the team will now have a full offseason to start building towards a new plan for the future.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>Offensively, the Padres seemed to be a pretty poor team if you just look at Runs Scored, where they rank 24th with 618. They also look pretty ugly if you look at a lot of the raw stats like BA (.245, 23rd), SLG (.378, 26th), and wOBA (.302, 25th). Much like with the Mets, that doesn't tell the whole story. The Padres play in one of the most extremely pitcher-friendly parks in the game. If you look at wRC+, which takes into account Park Effects, they fair a bit better with 94, 17th in baseball. It's certainly not great, but it isn't as disastrous as things looked at first glance. Their approach at the plate as a team definitely needs work as their BB/K of 0.36 ranks 23rd. On the bright side, they were one of the better baserunning teams with a BsR (Baserunning Runs Above Average, which is a combination of wSB, accounting for basestealing, and UBR, which covers other baserunning) of 5.1, good for 7th overall.<br />
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The biggest disappointment for the team came from third-baseman Chase Headly. After an incredible breakout season in 2012 where he hit .286/.376/.498 with a 145 wRC+ and 7.2 fWAR, Headley regressed significantly in 2013. He hit for a 113 wRC+ and 3.6 fWAR. The biggest changes were a drop in both power (31 to 13 HRs, .212. to .150 ISO) and BABIP (.378 to .330). Given his career averages are more in line with 2013, it may be that his 7.2 fWAR campaign was simply a career year and this is who Headley really is. For the second straight season, Carlos Quentin played very well (143 wRC+, 146 in 2012) and for the second year in a row, he only got into under 90 games due to injuries. The Padres did have a fair number of promising young players in the lineup, the most impressive of whom may have been Jedd Gyorko. The rookie second baseman showed impressive power with 23 home runs and a .195 ISO in 125 games. The Padres would still like him to work on his plate discipline as he walks rarely (6.3% of the time), and strikes out often (23.4%). If he can improve on that aspect of his game he could end up being an elite player.<br />
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The pitching, however, was far more of a concern. They allowed the 10th most runs in baseball at 700. Despite playing in an extreme pitcher's park, the Padres ranked near the bottom in most metrics. Their FIP of 4.00 ranked 21st and their xFIP of 3.96 was 19th. Perhaps most alarming was their HR/FB rate of 10.8% was the 10th highest mark in the majors, despite playing in a park that suppresses home runs. For reference, the Yankees, playing in a park that aids home runs, were 9th with 11.5%. Using park/league adjusted numbers, brings the problems into stark releif as their FIP- of 112 was 29th (just ahead of the Astros' 119) and their xFIP- of 105 was 24th. The good news is that Andrew Cashner finished the year extremely well. While his numbers to start the season were disappointing (6.07 K/9, 3.81 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 3.90 xFIP), he turned it around in the second half (7.26 K/9 2.14 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 3.26 xFIP). The big change seems to be that Cashner rediscovered his slider. In the first half (through the end of June), Cashner only threw his slider 2.97% of the time, as opposed to 18.69% in previous seasons. For the rest of the season, that number shot up to 20.52%. The rest of the rotation was often unpleasant. Edinson Volquez was terrible, pitching 27 games with a 6.01 ERA and 4.21 FIP. Jason Marquis was, perhaps, even worse with a 4.05 ERA masking a 5.65 FIP. Clayton Richards started the year with a horrifying 7.01 ERA and 6.54 FIP before having his season ended, mercifully, due to shoulder surgery.<br />
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It was a bad season for the Padres and 2014 is unlikely to be significantly better. The good news is that the Padres have a top-flight farm system (seventh according to Bleacher Report's post-MiLB rankings, third in Baseball America's recent Near-Term Value rankings. They've already seen an influx of positional players in Jedd Gyorko, Everth Cabrera, Yonder Alondzo, and Yasmani Grandal. On the way is a promising stock of young pitchers--something San Diego sorely needs right now. There may be concerns of a steroid problem within the organization as the Padres have had more players suspended over the last two seasons than any other team, including Yasmani Grandal and Everth Cabrera. It's certainly not significant enough to jump to any conclusions yet, but it bears watching. With the ownership and front office situation sorted out, now Padres fans can focus on the team on the field (as the prospects in the minors) and look towards a hopefully brighter future.<br />
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<b>Team MVP:</b> Chris Denorfia, 3.9 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP: </b>Mark Kotsay, -1.7 fWAR<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm:</b> The Padres possess one of the better farm systems in the game. While no one player stands out as a future superstar, it is a deep system filled with multiple strong prospects. Particularly impressive is its stock of young pitchers, like Max Fried and Matthew Wisler. Casey Kelly is another promising pitcher, who unfortunately has suffered several injury setbacks, most significantly undergoing Tommy John surgery this spring.<br />
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Austin Hedges is a 21-year-old catching prospect who is considered to be one of, if not the, best defensive player at the position in the entire minor leagues. Since being drafted in 2011, he's lived up to his defensive reputation, leaving his bat the only real question in his development. He had a surprisingly solid showing in High-A this season hitting .270/.343/.425 with a bit of gap power (.155 ISO). He struggled in 20 games after being promoted to AA, with a mere .224/.297/.269. He'll certainly open the 2014 season at AA and have another chance to continue to develop his hitting against that level of competition. With Yasmani Grandal on the major league roster, the Padres can afford to be patient with this young man and give him every chance to reach his potential.<br />
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Matthew Wisler is a promising 21-year-old right-handed pitcher. The pitcher's frame filled out a bit in the offseason, allowing him to add velocity to his four-seam fastball, which now sits around 93-95 mph. He also possesses a solid two-seamer and a big slow curve and has been developing a changeup. He locates both fastballs well, but struggles with command of the curveball at times. He had a very impressive showing at AA this year with a 8.83 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 3.00 ERA and 2.93 FIP. He still needs to work to improve his ability to get left-handed batters out. While he walked 27 batters at AA, 21 of those were left-handed. I wouldn't be surprised to see him start 2014 in AAA as the Padres have been aggressive with promoting him thus far. His ceiling is that of a #2 starter.<br />
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<b>Offseason Outlook: </b>While the Padres are probably not looking at contention in 2014, they will still look to shore up the team in the offseason. Having the players already on the roster stay healthy and un-suspended would be a big start. They also could use more pitching to join Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross in the rotation, in order to bridge the gap until the next wave of reinforcements is ready to come up from the minors. Given their budget and distance from contention, they will be again looking to capitalize on 'buy low' candidates. A prime one would be Phil Hughes, who would greatly benefit from the spacious outfield of Petco.<br />
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As a Red Sox fan, I'm also compelled to note that the Padres have signed "Human Standing Ovation" Dave Roberts to be their bench coach in 2014. Best of luck to him.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-70208948644407864062013-11-28T14:06:00.000-05:002013-11-28T19:08:13.823-05:00Rounding the Bases: 11/21 - 11/27Today, I launch a new feature at Baseball Arcade. Every Thursday, I will be posting a roundup of the previous week's major news stories and transactions in baseball. I will also be posting links to a couple excellent articles from across the baseball 'blog-o-sphere.'<br />
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<b><u>News</u></b><br />
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11/21 - Kansas City Royals sign RHP Jason Vargas to a 4/$32 contract<br />
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11/22 - Milwaukee Brewers trade RHP Burke Badenhop to Boston Red Sox for mL LHP Luis Ortega<br />
11/22 - <span id="goog_1563651087"></span>St Louis Cardinals trade 3B David Freese and RHP Fernando Salas to Los Angeles Angels for CF Peter Bourjos and mL OF Randal Grichuk<span id="goog_1563651088"></span><br />
11/22 - New York Mets sign OF Chris Young to a 1/$7.25 contract<br />
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11/23 - New York Yankees sign C Brian McCann to a 5/$85 deal with 6th year vesting option<br />
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11/24 - <span id="goog_1563651092"></span>St Louis Cardinals sign IF Jhonny Peralta to a 4/$53 contract<span id="goog_1563651093"></span><br />
11/24 - Tampa Bay Rays re-sign C Jose Molina to a 2/$4.5 contract<br />
11/24 - Los Angeles Dodgers sign Dan Haren to a 1/$10 contract with 2nd year vesting option<br />
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11/25 - Kansas City Royals trade C George Kottaras to Chicago Cubs for cash considerations<br />
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11/26 - Minnesota Twins sign RHP Ricky Nolasco to a 4/$49 contract with 5th year option<br />
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<b><u>Blog Links</u></b><br />
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Chris Carruthers (Breaking Blue) wrote an excellent article, "<a href="http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/11/23/the-r-a-dickey-effect/" target="_blank">The R.A. Dickey Effect</a>", where he examines the effect batters having to face Dickey and his knuckleball has on the relievers who come in after him.<br />
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Bill Baer (Crashburn Alley) reminds everyone that, despite the Tigers escaping from the Fielder contract, <a href="http://crashburnalley.com/2013/11/23/despite-prince-fielder-deal-ryan-howard-is-still-untradable/" target="_blank">Ryan Howard is never going anywhere. Ever.</a><br />
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Bruce Markusen (Hardball Times) takes an <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/cooperstown-confidential-the-tale-of-the-tape-in-1965/" target="_blank">in-depth look</a> at the recently recovered footage from Jim Maloney's 1965 no-hitter, with a focus on how the coverage of the sport has changed.<br />
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Rany <span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Jayazerli </span>(Rany on the Royals) examines <a href="http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2013/11/for-want-of-pitcher-jason-vargas.html" target="_blank">the Jason Vargas deal</a>. Unsurprisingly, he thinks it's a bad move for KC.<br />
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Dave Cameron (Fangraphs) looks at how the market is changing and the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-early-look-at-the-price-of-a-win-this-off-season/" target="_blank">cost of a Win</a> is on the rise.<br />
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For the really bold, Bryan Grosnick (Beyond the Box Score) proposes <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/11/26/5144934/openers-bullpen-usage-closers-setup-men-weird-baseball-all-the-luke-hochevar" target="_blank">a new bullpen role: "opener"</a>APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-1087200668181662402013-11-27T23:14:00.000-05:002013-11-27T23:14:34.876-05:00Deadspin Buys Vote, Baseball Arcade Unravels MysteryIt was revealed today that <a href="http://deadspin.com/deadspin-buys-hall-of-fame-vote-will-turn-it-over-to-d-1467003665" target="_blank">Deadspin had purchased the Hall of Fame vote of a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America</a>. The sports and humor website intends to crowd-source the ballot, which the writer will then submit as his own. After the votes are tallied, the writer in question will reveal his/her identity and his/her justification for selling the vote. But waiting is no longer necessary! I'm proud to say that Baseball Arcade has deduced the seller's identity.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>I don't want to get too much into the morality of the actual selling here. I'm no fan of the way the BBWAA voting has been handled of late. The Hall of Fame election process has been particularly irksome to me--so much so that I could write an entire post about it. However, I feel like selling a vote is not the best way to bring attention to the flaws in the system.<br />
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Discussing the ethics of selling a vote, however, is not the point of this piece. The point is to reveal the seller's identity. Using the twin powers of SCIENCE! and SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!, I have determined that the member who sold his vote to Deadspin is...<br />
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<b>Bill Ballou of the <i>Worcester Telegram & Gazette</i>.</b><br />
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I had written about Mr. Ballou previously in <a href="http://baseballarcade.blogspot.com/2013/11/on-awards-madness.html" target="_blank">my piece on the MVP Award</a>. At the time, I had pegged him as merely another anachronistic dinosaur of a writer deathly afraid of modern analysis. I now realize that I was oh-so-wrong. It all fits as part of a long and complicated Dr.-Doom-level plan. Bill Ballou bided his time, no doubt preaching the value of Pitcher Wins to all he met, keeping himself beyond suspicion until he had the opportunity to enact his daring scheme to first embarrass the BBWAA and then conquer the world. Of course!<br />
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The key lies in Deadspin's own <a href="http://deadspin.com/deadspin-buys-hall-of-fame-vote-will-turn-it-over-to-d-1467003665" target="_blank">article</a>. They state that their intention was to "make a mockery and farce of the increasingly solemn and absurd election process." Clearly, whoever sold their vote is sympathetic to Deadspin's goals. They already realized the flaws in the system and wanted to bring them to light.<br />
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Who else has done more to make a mockery of the voting process than the man who voted Mike Trout SEVENTH for the AL MVP? The AL MVP was merely Phase 1 of Mr. Ballou's plan. This is Phase 2. I have no idea what Phase 3 will be, but I recommend all citizens of Cooperstown, NY be on high alert.<br />
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I take back the mean things I said about you, Bill. You were merely playing a long game.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-73552343042965779762013-11-27T12:00:00.000-05:002013-11-27T12:00:04.787-05:00Team Postmortem: Toronto Blue Jays<b>Record:</b> 74-88, -44 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary: </b>Congratulations to the 2013 World Champi-- What? They didn't win the World Series? Didn't even play in it? Well, the postseason is a crapshoot, they probably just got unlucky. In that case, this season the AL East Champion Toro--Huh? They didn't win the division, either? They finished last? Oh... So, yeah, despite being crowned the easy favorites by just about everyone in the media, the Blue Jays actually finished dead last in the East, with a sub-.500 record. Seeing a window of opportunity, with the Red Sox and Yankees both apparently weakened and the Orioles likely to regress, the Blue Jays pushed all their chips to the center of the table in the offseason, trading nearly their entire farm system for R.A. Dickey and the entire Miami Marlins roster. Unfortunately, everything that could go wrong from that point basically did. Let's take a look.<br />
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The good news is that the Blue Jays actually had a pretty good offense this year. They scored 712 runs (9th in baseball), while hitting .270/.323/.411 with a .320 wOBA (11th) a 99 wRC+ (12th). They also posted one of of the best K/BB ratios in the game 0.45 (6th). Edwin Encarnacion had an excellent year hitting .272/.370/.534 with 36 homers and a 145 wRC+. Jose Bautista had another solid year with a wRC+ of 134, as did Colby Rasmus (130 wRC+, .501 SLG). The problem was injuries. Bautista (118 games played), Jose Reyes (93), Rasmus (118), Rajai Davis (108), and Brett Lawrie (107) were all among players who missed significant time. These players were all key pieces of the Blue Jays' offense and, when they were on the field, gave above-average results. Perhaps the biggest disappointment was Melky Cabrera who was limited to 88 games by injuries; even when he did play, he only hit .279/.322/.350 with a 87 wRC+ and -0.9 fWAR. He was coming off a 150 wRC+ season--albeit one that ended with a steroid suspension--but certainly the Blue Jays had hoped for more out of him than being below replacement level. Catcher was also a black hole for the Jays, where J. P. Arencibia was healthy--but many Jays fans probably wished he wasn't. He swatted 21 homers, but the rest of his line is an ugly .195/.227/.365 with a wRC+ of 57 and a -0.6 fWAR. <a href="http://baseballarcade.blogspot.com/2013/11/more-or-less-scary-than-jp-arencibia.html" target="_blank">It doesn't get more scary than that.</a><br />
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For all the injury problems on the offense, it was the pitching and defense that truly sunk the Jays season. They allowed 756 runs, ranking them 27th in the majors, with a 4.33 FIP (27th) and a 4.04 xFIP (25th). The big off-season pick-up for the Jays had been R. A. Dickey. In 2012, the knuckleballer had gone 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA, 3.27 FIP (note: FIP does have issues dealing with knuckleballers, who have a tendency to consistently out-perform the stat), 8.86 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, a 4.7 fWAR and winning the NL Cy Young Award. In 2013, Dickey dropped off dramatically. His ERA and FIP ballooned to 4.21 and 4.58. His K/9 dropped to 7.09 and his BB/9 rose to 2.84. Batters also teed off on his knuckler, with an HR/9 of 1.40 (0.92 in 2012). A possible culprit is that Dickey lost about 1.5 mph off all of his pitches. Losing the velocity would cause the knuckleball to float more, which may have resulted in it being more difficult for Dickey to control and thus more balls over the heart of the plate. No matter the cause, it was not the performance Toronto was looking for from its new ace. Another significant disappointment was Josh Johnson, acquired from the Marlins in the Mega-Trade. The book on Johnson has always been that he's an excellent pitcher who simply can't stay healthy. The Jays bet that this would be the year that he was healthy and that he would be an excellent #2 behind Dickey. Unfortunately, he was neither healthy (only pitching 16 games) nor effective. When on the mound he had the worst season of his career, posting a 6.20 ERA and 4.62 FIP. While he still had an excellent 9.18 K/9, he had the worst BB/9 of his career at 3.32 and batters hit for a .369 wOBA (he essentially turned all hitters into Giancarlo Stanton, Brandon Moss, or Mike Napoli) against him. Like the offense, health was an issue for the rest of the rotation. The only staters to make more than 20 starts were Mark Buerhle (33 GS, 4.10 FIP) and RA Dickey (32 GS). The rest of the team was plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness, forcing the Jays to give starts to names like Brandon Morrow (10 GS, 5.42 FIP), Chien-Ming Wang (6 GS, 5.42 FIP), and Ramon Ortiz (4 GS, 6.72 FIP).<br />
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It was about as bad as could be, especially given the high hopes the organization had going into the season. Last off-season's trades with the Marlins and the Mets decimated Toronto's farm system--dropping it from one of baseball's best systems to one of the very worst. In the pre-season, Baseball America ranked it 22nd and in its post-MiLB season rankings Bleacher Report put it at 28th. As a result, the Blue Jays are locked into "Win Now" mode. That may sound terrifying, given their 74-88 record this season, but there is hope. If the Jays can get even some reasonable semblance of health from their roster (certainly, it'd be hard to be worse), and some better results from their starting pitching (Dickey, we're looking at you), they can significantly improve on their record in 2014, perhaps even into the contention that everyone predicted for 2013. They'd better too, as another losing season will probably land GM Alex Anthopoulos on the hot seat.<br />
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<b>Team MVP: </b>Colby Rasmus, 4.8 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP: </b>Maicer Izturis, -2.1 fWAR<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm:</b> As I said, there's really not much to see here anymore. Last year's trades which sent, among others, Travis D'Arnaud, Wuilmer Becerra, and Noah Snydergaard to the Mets and Adeiny Hechavarria, Justin Nicolino, and Jake Marisnick to the Marlins utterly decimated Toronto's farm. What remains is a system that is a shell of its former self. To make matters worse, the Jays failed to come to an agreement with 2013 first round pick Phil Bickford, preventing them from restocking badly needed talent. Let's take a look at what talent is left.<br />
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Aaron Sanchez is a 21-year-old right-handed pitcher, with a fastball that sits mid-90s and can top out in the high 90s. He also possesses an average curveball that has plus potential and he is developing a changeup. The fastball has the potential of being a truly spectacular pitch, he throws it with easy velocity and natural movement. The problem is that his control and command is currently extremely lacking. In each professional season thus far he's posted a BB/9 over 4 , often over 5. He spent the majority of the season in A+, posting a 7.82 K/9, 4.12 BB/9 and 3.34 ERA. If he can develop his command, he has a ceiling of a #2 starter--or even an ace. Without that, however, there are a lot more question marks in his future.<br />
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D.J. Davis is a 19-year-old centerfielder who spent 2013 in Rookie-ball. His biggest calling card has always been his incredible speed, both in the field and on the basepaths, which scouts rank as a pure 80. However, this season Davis also flashed some good power for a teenager, hitting for a .178 ISO and belting 23 extra base hits. He's still very raw and struggles with off-speed pitches which lead to his 29.5% strike-out rate. He'll probably open the season in A ball and, given the Blue Jays' aggressive tendencies with promoting outfield prospects, could make his way to Toronto by 2016.<br />
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<b>Offseason Outlook: </b>The Blue Jays are about as locked into attempting to contend as any team could be. As such, any moves they make this offseason will be designed to make the postseason in 2014. For better or worse, the team will be returning much the same roster as last season. However, there two biggest holes will be at catcher (where J.P. Arencibia was beyond horrible) and a front-line starting pitcher to bolster the rotation (their biggest weakness in 2013) and replace the departing Josh Johnson. As for catcher, while I expect Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamacchia to be priced out of the Blue Jays budget, they could make a run at Dioner Navarro. Finding a starting pitcher will be a bigger challenge. The Jays will certainly pursue guys like Bartolo Colon, but may have to settle for more of a durable innings-eater like Bronson Arroyo. Given the injuries to the rotation in 2013, durability would be a nice change of pace. Ultimately, the Jays' 2014 rests less on who they acquire and more on bounceback seasons from the guys already on the roster.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-51335675759855413582013-11-26T12:00:00.000-05:002013-11-26T22:36:52.182-05:00On Awards Madness: AddendumWhile writing a <a href="http://baseballarcade.blogspot.com/2013/11/on-awards-madness.html" target="_blank">previous piece about the AL MVP voting</a>, I got to thinking about the other awards. For the most part, I am fine with how they turned out. Sure, I could quibble about a ballot or two, but that would a waste of your time. However, I do want to talk about the American League Comeback Player of the Year. It's certainly the lowest profile of all the major BBWWAA awards, but that doesn't mean the voters can't get it wrong and that Baseball Arcade can't get mad about it.<br />
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First off, let's talk about who actually won. Mariano Rivera, to absolutely no one's surprise, took the award this year. Now, in a vacuum, this isn't a crime. Rivera tore a ligament in his in knee while shagging flyballs during batting practice in Kansas City on May 3, 2012. He missed the rest of the season. The fact that Rivera, now 43 years old, returned from such a traumatic injury at his age and put up one final excellent season (2.11 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 1.5 fWAR) in his Hall of Fame career is indeed amazing. Was it really the comback most worthy of celebration though? I don't think so. I suspect that the voters wanted to give Rivera one final award in his last season. He probably would have won this as long as he took the mound at all this year, regardless of how he performed or what anyone else in the league did.<br />
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So, who do I think should have won?<br />
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There is an excellent case for John Lackey to win, although he is my second choice.] Lackey was horrible in 2011 (6.41 ERA, 4.71 FIP) then missed all of 2012 with Tommy John surgery. No one expected much of anything from him in 2013. Even simple mediocrity would have been a pleasant surprise to Red Sox fans. Instead, Lackey was fantastic (3.52 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 3.49 xFIP) and was a rock in a Boston rotation that, at times, looked shaky. He came back from being a player who was booed frequently in Fenway to receiving a standing ovation in Game 6 of the World Series. If I had a ballot, Lackey would have placed second.<br />
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My first place vote would have gone to Scott Kazmir of the Cleveland Indians. To me the Comeback Player is an award that should be just as influenced by the story as the results on the field. While Kazmir's results weren't flashy--his 4.04 ERA and 2.5 fWAR made him more of a mid-rotation starter, although he had an very good xFIP of 3.36--his story is what really sells him. Rivera and Lackey both came back from injuries. Kazmir came back from his career being over. After putting up both horrible and injury-plagued seasons in 2009-2011 (FIP by year: 4.26, 5.83, 18.03--one start, but pounded in the minors), the former Tampa ace was out of Major League Baseball as of June 15, 2011. He spent the rest of 2011 and all of 2013 pitching for various independent Dominican and Puerto Rican teams. Players almost never come back from that point. However, the Indians heard that his fastball velocity had returned and took a chance on him. He rewarded their gamble by helping the Tribe secure a Wild Card berth.<br />
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Scott Kazmir returned not merely from injury, not merely from ineffectiveness, but from oblivion. He is my Comeback Player of the Year.<br />
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APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-32970509805051477052013-11-25T12:00:00.000-05:002013-11-25T12:00:05.224-05:00Team Postmortem: Milwaukee Brewers<b>Record: </b>74-88, -47 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> When you use 125 different lineups over the course of a 162-game season, it's probably not a very good sign. Well, the Brewers ran 125 lineups out there this season and, sure enough, they weren't very good. They suffered through multiple injuries, a rotation that amounted to mediocrity at best and "praying for rain" at worst, and the suspension of "Face of the Franchise" Ryan Braun for a violation of MLB's steroid policy. Not a good year for the Brew Crew. Let's get to it.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>Offensively, the Brewers were the quintessential stars-and-scrubs lineup. Except very few stars and only one player who was actually amazing all year. So mostly scrubs. As a team, the Brewers hit 252/311/398 with a 94 wRC+ (18th in baseball), scoring 640 runs (19th). Things get a tiny bit better if you remove the pitcher from the equation, giving them a wRC+ of 100--essentially exactly average. They had basically average power with a 145 ISO (16th), but they were the worst team in baseball at drawing walks with a mark of 6.7%. That's really, really bad. Removing the pitcher doesn't help them much there either, bumping them up to only 27th.<br />
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The good news was Carlos Gomez who had a crazy breakout season. How crazy? Gomez hit for a 363 wOBA and a 130 wRC+ while playing stellar defense in centerfield, giving him 7.6 fWAR and making him a legitimate MVP candidate. Brewers fans are probably incredibly pleased to have him around for the next few years. They see him as a cornerstone of the future, and rightfully so. However, there are some concerns. While his power and defense are probably for real, he suffers from a terrible walk rate (6.3%) and he posted an abnormally high BABIP at 344, way above his career norms and the MLB average. His LD% was also exceedingly high at 21.3%, although the rest of his batted ball types were largely in line. He's still a great player, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him regress quite a bit next year. Steamer (a Fangraphs' projection tool) pegs him to be 4.7 fWAR in 2014 and I suspect that's far closer to correct than what he did this year. The Brewers also got a good season out of young shortstop Jean Segura (3.4 fWAR) and Jonathan Lucroy (3.6 fWAR). Unfortunately, the rest of the team was either average or worse--no one else even hit 2 fWAR. Particularly disappointing was Ryan Braun--locked up for a million years for a zillion dollars--who, while hitting well as usual (370 wOBA), played in only 61 games due to injuries and a steroid suspension. There are certainly questions as to who Braun will be at the plate when he returns in 2014. Also the team comically signed former worst-shortstop-in-baseball, Yuniesky Betancourt, and had him play... third base. And first base. For 137 games. With a .240 OBP. Yeah. <a href="http://baseballarcade.blogspot.com/2013/11/does-yuniesky-betancourt-possess-x-gene.html" target="_blank">And this is the second time they've signed him.</a><br />
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The pitching staff was even more concerning. The Brewers allowed 687 runs (17th) with a 3.84 ERA (16th), which seems... well, average instead of terrible. Unfortunately, their FIP is far worse at 4.12 (25th!) and FIP is far more predictive. To make matters worse, the majority of the good on the pitching staff came from a solid, if lucky, bullpen (3.19 ERA, 5th best; 3.80 FIP, 22nd), while the starting rotation posted a 4.20 ERA and a 4.31 FIP. Most disappointing has been the continued decline of Yovani Gallardo. After a breakout season in 2010 where he posted a 3.02 FIP and a 4.5 fWAR, Gallardo has declined each season since. 2013 was his worst yet, posting a K/9 of 7.17 (a career low, down from 9.00 last year and 9.73 in 2010), although his GB% of BB/9 was not significantly altered. His FIP has increased to 3.89 and his fWAR has plummeted to 1.7, making him merely an average role player rather than the ace the Brewers once hoped he'd be. The rest of the rotation was either the same mediocrity (Kyle Lohse, 1.8 fWAR; Marco Estrada, 1.6 fWAR), or worse. Injuries forced prospect Wily Peralta to spend the entire season in the majors, despite walking 4.79 batters per nine in AAA last year. While he didn't walk quite as many in the bigs (3.58), he also didn't strike anyone out (6.33 K/9 vs 8.78 in AAA in 2012) and posted a 4.30 FIP and a 1.0 fWAR. And that counted as good news for the Brewers' rotation. Ouch.<br />
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The Brewers are a difficult team to get a read on. They are either a team in decline, or one transitioning to a new, young core. While they certainly have stars in Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun (around both of whom there are concerns going forward--particularly Braun) and two potential young contributors in Segura and Lucroy, the rest of the team is exceedingly mediocre. There is some hope, in that there were a lot of young players on the team, and one can hope they take a huge step forward next season, but outside of Segura, they aren't that highly regarded. There's not a lot more help on the way either. The Brewers have recently stopped drafting well--a talent they were once known for--and their farm system has plummeted. It was ranked 24th by Bleacher Report late in the season. Perhaps of more immediate concern is Baseball America's recent Near-Term Value rankings, which ranked organizations based on talent close to the majors. The Brewers were ranked dead last. The Brewers gave up a lot in their 2011 run, and while they got some talent back in the Greinke trade, ultimately the future doesn't look very good. I don't think the Brewers will go into a full rebuild yet--certainly the fact that outside of a 6-22 record in May, they were basically a .500 club, suggests giving this core another shot or two at contention--but if 2014 goes a lot like 2013 did, that time may be coming soon.<br />
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<b>Team MVP:</b> Carlos Gomes, 7.6 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP:</b> Yuniesky Betancourt, -1.8 fWAR<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm: </b>Between trading away talent in their 2011 push and graduating a number of players to the majors in 2013--including Khris Davis, Wily Peralta and Scooter Gennett--Milwaukee is left with a weak farm system whose upper levels are nearly empty of anything resembling impact talent. There are some intriguing players in the system, but most have significant question marks around them. The Brewers will certainly be banking on a big year from the farm in 2013 if it is going to provide them with worthy MLB reinforcements in the near future.<br />
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Jimmy Nelson, perhaps the top prospect in the Brewers' system, is a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher. He has a big fastball that he throws 94-95 mph and a swing-and-miss slider that comes in around 85-87. His third pitch, a change-up, is a much more rough offering--the reports I've read label it as currently projecting to be a below average pitch. He has good sink on his fastball, resulting in a lot of groundballs, and his slider definitely has strikeout potential--evident by his 9.39 K/9 in AA and 9.83 in AAA this season. However, his Achilles' heel is his control. In 2012, in AA, he posted a horrifying 7.24 BB/9. He did improve on that in 2013, posting a 1.96 in AA in twelve starts, but that improvement quickly vanished upon his promotion to AAA where he recorded a 5.40 mark. His future role will be defined by developing that control as well as his changeup. He projects to be a #3-4 starter or a late-innings reliever.<br />
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Tyrone Taylor is an 18-year-old OF prospect, picked up by the Brewers in the 2012 draft. His youth--and the fact that he focused more on football before being drafted--makes him exceedingly raw and, while he has a high ceiling, he also has a very low floor. His solid speed has served him well in centerfield, but some scouts think he'll end up in a corner spot. He has decent power potential (20 HRs as a ceiling) and good contact skills hitting .278/.338/.400 in A-ball this year. He does need to work on his patience with a 6.4% walk rate and 11.5% strikeout rate. Taylor has a lot of polishing to do, but will have time to do it as he is probably three-to-four years away from Milwaukee.<br />
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<b>Offseason Outlook:</b> The Brewers are not yet rebuilding and will certainly try to put at least a winning--if not contending--team on the field in 2014. One major hole they will have to fill this offseason is at first base, since Corey Hart--who missed the 2013 season with a knee injury--is now a free agent. Certainly, Betancourt should not be getting any playing time there. They probably will try to bring Hart back on a one-year deal, and failing that, may target someone like Morse or Loney. They also should look at some veteran support for their rotation. Scott Kazmir will probably be relatively cheap, could benefit from NL competition, and could be a good fit.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-34263769074705938362013-11-25T02:38:00.000-05:002013-11-25T02:41:01.631-05:00Dodgers Sign Haren, Get Value Without Breaking the BankLate Sunday evening, the <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/24/report-dan-haren-to-sign-with-dodgers-on-one-year-10-million-deal/" target="_blank">Los Angeles Dodgers signed free agent pitcher Dan Haren to one year, $10M contract</a> to be their fifth starter. The deal includes a vesting option for 2015 if Haren throws 180 innings in 2014. My initial reaction was that it was a very good deal for the Dodgers. I decided it might be interesting to look at the deal a bit closer in Baseball Arcade's first attempt at analyzing a contract.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>Over the past two season, Haren has been worth 3.3 fWAR. Last season, while missing time with shoulder inflammation, Haren threw 169.2 IP with an excellent 8.01 K/9 and similarly impressive 1.64 BB/9. Unfortunately, he was hurt by the longball with a 1.49 HR/9, leading to a 4.67 ERA. However, his FIP was far better at 4.09 and xFIP was even more optimistic at 3.67. Altogether, he was worth 1.5 fWAR. While that is far from the dominant pitcher he was from 2007-2011, he doesn't need to do much more to justify that contract. Using the commonly accepted value of a Win at $5.5M--which is certain to be inflating; some people are theorizing it may be closer to $7M--if Haren merely repeats his 2013, missed time and all, he'll be worth $8.25M. Add in a little better health and that is pretty much spot on.<br />
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But there's reason to believe he could be even better. It was only in 2011 that Haren posted a 3.17 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.49 xFIP and 6.2 fWAR. While Haren is unlikely to reach that level ever again, he certainly could end up somewhere between that and his more recent performance. Haren posted ERAs of 4.33 and 4.67 the last two seasons, but was significantly hurt by high HR/FB rates (12.8%,13.0%), looking more than a little unlucky. xFIP was far more kind to him with marks of 4.00 and 3.67. If Haren can pitch closer to his peripherals--and thus his xFIP--his performance could easily exceed the cost of his contract.<br />
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In fact, he may already be better. Through the first half of the 2013 season Haren was hammered for 5.61 ERA and 4.67 FIP. Batters hit .294/.337/.516 with a .370 wOBA against him. However, his xFIP sat at 3.90, hinting that he was better than his results. After landing on the DL, Haren returned with a far better second half. He posted a 3.52 ERA and 3.37 FIP while holding opponent's to a line of .222/.265/.371 with a wOBA of .279. Suddenly, Haren was not only very good but more in line with his xFIP of 3.40. The biggest changes to his repertoire seem to be in an increase in usage and effectiveness of his sinker. In the first half, he threw the pitch 32.24% of the time and opponents hit it for a BAA of .310 and a .530 SLG. In the second half, he used the sinker 40.29% of the time and batters a for a mere .219 BAA and .367 SLG. He also took nearly 3 mph off his splitter (from 85.38 mph to 82.69). The velocity shift seemed to result in an increase in effectiveness as the pitch's Whiff% rose from 11.67% to 14.35%. Batters also seemed to have more difficulty making good contact with the splitter as it's GB/BIP rate increased from 43.64% to 56.10%.<br />
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The Dodgers made a solid low-risk move in signing Haren. He doesn't have to be much better, if at all, than his last two season to be worth his contract. If his second half results where he stopped under-performing his peripherals are indicative of his future performance, there's also a good chance he could be worth quite a bit more. Steamer projects him for a 3.61 FIP and 3.0 fWAR, which would make the contract a steal. It's a smart move and could easily end up being the best deal of the offseason.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-42503367865349602252013-11-22T12:00:00.000-05:002013-11-22T12:00:04.646-05:00Team Postmortem: Colorado Rockies<b>Record: </b>74-88, -54 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> Well, the Rockies gave their fans hope this season ... for a little while. For the first few months of the year, the Rockies were in contention. On June 17, they were three games over .500 and only a solitary game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the lead in the NL West. They would never be that close to the division lead or that many games over .500 again, ending the season in last place in the NL West. Then again, they weren't the only team who saw a similar crash; the entire division saw hopes crushed by the Dodgers' ridiculous surge. It should be noted that the Rockies were incredibly bad on the road in 2013, going 23 games below .500 away from Coors Field. The highlight of the season ended up being a touching and well-deserved farewell to career Rockie Todd Helton.<br />
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Offensively, it's easy to jump out and say the Rockies were good. They scored 706 runs (10th in baseball) while hitting .270/.323/.464 with the 5th best wOBA in baseball at 324! That's good! Real good! Better than the Orioles, Rangers, or Cardinals! Unfortunately for the Rockies, things aren't so simple since they play in, y'know, Coors Field. Weighted Runs Recreated+ (wRC+) is based on wOBA, but adjusted for, among other things, park effects (think of wRC+ being akin to what OPS+ is to OPS, only for the much more valuable wOBA). The Rockies' wRC+ of 90 plummets them all the way down to 22nd in baseball--behind even the Mariners. Ouch. They were actually pretty decent at avoiding strinking out with the 14th lowest K% at 19.6%, but unfortunately paired that with never, ever walking (BB% 6.9% - 25th). <br />
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That's not to say it was all bad news. The Rockies still have two true superstars in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Tulowitzki posted another dominant season hitting .312/.391/.540 with a stellar 143 wRC+ along with above-average defense at shortstop for a 5.6 fWAR, despite being limited to 126 games thanks to a broken rib. Carlos Gonzalez alos had a fantastic season with a .302/.367/.591 line and a 149 wRC+ while playing excellent defense in left field for a 4.9 fWAR. Unfortunately, Cargo was also limited by injuries, getting in only 110 games. The team also benefited from a surprisingly excellent year from Michael Cuddyer who posted a 140 wRC+, though his defense in the outfield was extremely poor, limiting his overall value. While rookie Nolan Arenado didn't hit at all, he was one of the best defensive third basemen in the game (despite being decidedly average at best in the minors).<br />
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Pitching-wise, the Rockies were, as is the norm, horri--wait, what? The Rockies had an pretty good pitching staff this year? Turns out, it's true! From what I've read, the team made a conscious effort over the past year (throughout all levels of the organization) to focus on working low in the zone and inducing weak contact. For 2013, at least, it may have worked--or at least be on the right track. While the Rockies' staff did allow the 760 runs (the third most in the game), the advanced metrics loved them. Their FIP of 3.96 may have ranked 20th, but if we remember again that we have to account for Coors Field, we can turn to FIP-. (Note: Much like wRC+ and OPS+, FIP- adjusts FIP for league and park effects. While, like wRC+ and OPS+, 100 is average for FIP-, like ERA, lower is better.) The Rockies had a FIP- of 92, which would make them the third best staff in baseball behind only the Tigers and the Rangers. The staff was led by career years from Jhoulys Chachin, Jorge de La Rosa, and Tyler Chatwood. Chacin lead the staff with 4.3 fWAR and a 3.47 FIP in 197.1 innings. Jorge de le Rosa (3.76 FIP) and Chatwood (3.66 FIP) were similarly good, but limited by durability issues (167.2 and 111.1 IP respectively). The real question for this staff is whether any of that improved performance is real, or all just freak year (it's happened before). These numbers are all the best these pitchers have put up in years, if ever. As a point, here are all three players' FIPs from the past two seasons: 5.15, 4.23, 8.63, 3.36, 5.17, 4.89. Answering that question will be a big part of defining the Rockies off-season plans.<br />
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Going forward, it's hard to know what the make of the Rockies. At times, it seems like even the front office isn't sure what direction the franchise is taking. They have two true young--though oft-injured--superstars in Tulowitzski and Gonzalez. They have a couple of young guys who took steps--however small in some cases--forward, including Chatwood, Chachin, Arenado, Rex Brothers and Charlie Blackmon. Fans and analysts that I've read seem divided on whether the Rockies are headed in the right direction--and thus somewhat close to contention--or if the pitching was a complete mirage and the youth aren't ever going to fully break out. It looks like the Rockies could be close to respectability even in 2014, while contention may be a bit further out. They'll need to fill some holes, however, notably at first base where fan favorite Todd Helton (decidedly unproductive in 2013) will no longer be penciled in for the first time since 1998. That will depend alot on GM Dan O'Dowd's ability to bring in major league talent to supplement the roster, something that he hasn't been very successful with in his tenure. Also, it'd sure be nice if Tulowitzski and CarGo could be healthy for a full season for a change.<br />
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<b>MVP: </b>Troy Tulowitzki, 5.6 fWAR<br />
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<b>LVP: </b>Jordan Pacheco, -1.4 fWAR<br />
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Down On The Farm: Overall, the Rockies had a rough year in the minors. Top prospect Trevor Story struggled significantly both in the field and--more concerning--at the plate, despite playing in the offensively-charged California League. David Dahl, a 2012 first round pick, missed almost the entire season with a hamstring injury. It's not a very deep system and a disappointing season has left it ranked 23rd by Bleacher Report's end-of-season rankings (preseason it was ranked 21st by Baseball America).<br />
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Eddie Butler, a 22-year-old RHP, had the biggest year of any Rockies prospect. Butler possess an excellent fastball with velocity in the 93-97 mph range and excellent movement. He also throws a slider and a change-up that both possess plus velocity and plus movement. Butler logged a lot of air miles this year as he started the season in A-ball, moved up to A+ and then finished the year in AA. Across those three levels, Butler posted a 1.80 ERA, 8.54 K/9 and a 54.9% GB%. The biggest question for a kid with so much movement on his pitches is his ability to throw them for strikes; Butler has shown great improvement on that front, decreasing his BB/9 with each promotion going from 4.14 to 2.79 to 1.95. Butler could see the mound at Coors by 2015.<br />
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Jonathan Gray, 22, was considered a potential first overall pick in the 2013 draft and was grabbed by the Rockies with the #3 pick. Gray is a classic right-handed power pitcher, with a fastball that clocks in at 94-98 mph and has hit 100+ on occasion. He also possesses a vicious wipe-out slider. After being drafted, Gray got in nine starts split between Rookie-ball and A+. He posted a 10.13 K/9, 1.35 BB/9 and 4.05 ERA in Rookie and a 13.50 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and 0.75 ERA in A+. His ultimate potential is that of a true ace and a perennial All-Star, but first he will have to improve his changeup, which is currently a very rough offering. The difference in his ERA between the two levels, is that for his A+ starts he had abandoned the changeup that had been hammered in Rookie ball. If he can refine that third pitch, he'll be a big part of the Rockies' future.<br />
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<b>If APOD Was GM:</b> Given the lack of depth in the minors and the mixture of youth and superstar talent on the major league roster, I think the Rockies should be looking to move towards contention rather than rebuilding. Unfortunately, they have already missed out on Jose Dariel Abreu who would have been an excellent fit, dropping right into the hole left by Todd Helton. Given the lack of first-base options in free agency, I'd expect the Rockies to take a long look at moving Michael Cuddyer from RF to 1B. If Cuddyer's .396 wOBA in 2013 is even semi-real (and thats a big 'if'--a career-high 140 wRC+ at age 34 seems like a fluke) his bat will play at first and the position will mask his defensive flaws. While financial limitations will price them out of outfielders like Jacoby Ellsbury and Sin-Soo Choo, they could make a play for a guy like Nelson Cruz (who's suspension will probably decrease his price) or aim for a cheaper platoon option in the outfield. The Rockies almost certainly won't be contending in 2014, but with the right moves a winning record is within reach. That would be an excellent first step for the organization.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-28103979154657511602013-11-21T12:00:00.000-05:002013-11-21T12:00:03.468-05:00On Awards MadnessAt Baseball Arcade, I am not above beating a dead horse. Or a live horse. Or even a zombie horse. I'll beat any kind of horse is what I'm saying. With that out of the way, no topic has sparked as much heated debate and spilled more digital ink as the BBWAA MVP Awards have over the past week. It's time for me to throw my hat into the ring.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>Before I begin, let's highlight some of the fantastic work that's already out there. Dave Cameron, of Fangraphs and USS Mariner, put of a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-diminishing-value-of-valuable/" target="_blank">multitude</a> of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuable-or-not-valuable-not-less-valuable/" target="_blank">articles</a> on the subject. Jeff Passan (Yahoo! Sports) wrote a scathing <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/mike-trout--baseball-s-best-player--deserved-mvp-once-again-over-miguel-cabrera-053640882.html" target="_blank">indictment</a> of his fellow BBWAA voters. Finally, Jeff Sullivan (Fangraphs, USS Mariner) wrote a more optimistic <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/living-through-the-mvp-voting-transition-period/" target="_blank">piece</a> on the subject. Those are all excellent articles and I recommend you read them. I'll wait right here.<br />
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Done? Okay, let's move on.<br />
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First off, if I had had a vote, it would have gone to Mike Trout. This should come as no surprise. I'm a sabermetric guy. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. While the difference in their WAR is commonly cited in the debate about Mike Trout (10.4 fWAR) versus Miguel Cabrera (7.6), the the truth is that WAR (both its Fangraphs and Baseball Reference variants) have their flaws. Fortunately, WAR is unnecessary to prove that Trout is the superior player.<br />
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I will admit, there is little argument that Cabrera was a better hitter than Trout in 2013. Cabrera's wRC+ of 196 is both ridiculous and eclipses Trout's slightly less-ridiculous mark of 175. I want to note that wRC+, while not widely used in the mainstream media, is not some crazy esoteric stat. It is essentially OPS+, a pretty mainstream stat now, but based on wOBA, which more properly weights the value of the various offensive outcomes. However, offense is only part of the job of a position player. Miguel Cabrera plays third base, while Mike Trout plays centerfield, a significantly more difficult defensive position. As such, offense you get from centerfield is more valuable than the same offense from third base. Cabrera is a poor defender at third whether you use the eye test or statistics. Single season UZR numbers are unreliable, but Cabrera's career UZR/150 at third is -9.8 and he's been worse the last few seasons. Trout, meanwhile, is an excellent defender to the eye test and, while his UZR has some volatility due to a limited data set, his career UZR/150 in centerfield is 7.3 (and 8.4 over all outfield positions). It's pretty clear that Mike Trout provides greater value--significantly so--from his defense than Cabrera. As far as baserunning goes, it's barely worth even discussing. Cabrera, by any measure, is a very poor baserunner, while Trout is a good-to-very-good one. Miguel Cabrera is a better hitter than Mike Trout. He's probably the best hitter in the game. But Trout gets greater value from the other parts of his game, making him the greater total package.<br />
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Mike Trout is not simply the best player in baseball right now. He is a generational talent. He's drawing comparisons to guys like Mickey Mantle that aren't the least bit hyperbolic. He's 22 years old and so good that it's hard to wrap my head around it. He just had one of the best seasons by a 21 year old EVER. In a sane world, Trout wins the MVP easily.<br />
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But he didn't. Trout lost. Cabrera crushed him. Why?<br />
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A lot of it comes down to the name of the award: Most Valuable Player. The keyword here is "Valuable". That one word has launched a metric ton of debate. You'll hear many people--particularly more 'old school' writers--say things like "it's not Best Player, it's Most Valuable Player". The argument here is that, since the ultimate goal of any baseball team is to make the postseason, a player is only truly valuable if he helps his team contend. Thus, incredible players like Mike Trout aren't really eligible, since they play for horrible teams. In my opinion, this argument is absolutely insane. The MVP is an individual award given to a single player and not a team. As such, it should celebrate the accomplishments of that individual player. Should we be really considering the quality of a player's teammates, over which he has absolutely no control? That is the same backwards logic that leads to over-valuing (and by that I mean, placing any value on) stats like RBIs and Pitcher Wins. We've finally seen traction on dispelling those statistics. We've seen Wins become less and less important for the Cy Young Award. Why do people still cling to the same ideas for the MVP? The best player in baseball just lost an award because Angels' General Manager Jerry DiPoto failed to build a functioning team.<br />
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I also think there's another, dirtier, factor in play this year. I think Mike Trout has become a poster child for the sabermetric community in the eyes of older writers. Human beings fear what they can't understand and, I suspect, a lot of older writers fear the sabermetric revolution. They see the rise of websites like Fangraphs and blogs and internet analysis as taking away their relevancy and their jobs. As such, Trout is receiving some of the backlash. I'm not saying this is a factor for all, or even most, of the writers who voted for Cabrera. I do think it exists though.<br />
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The good news is things are getting better. More open-minded writers are getting votes now. Joe Posnanski had a vote for AL MVP. Keith Law voted for the NL ROY and Jeff Passan had a vote for the NL Cy Young. Fangraphs writers David Cameron, David Laurila, and Carson Cistulli are members of the BBWAA now; a few years ago websites weren't even eligible as news sources. Even if the progress is slow, it's still progress. And Sullivan is right--the fact that voters are now explaining their reasoning and, thus, creating opportunities for public debate, is a step forward. Debate is good. It can change minds. That doesn't help Mike Trout this year and doesn't stop me from being furious at some of the voters, but it leaves hope for the future.<br />
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While Sullivan is correct that it is a good thing that voters are publishing their explanations now, it does not mean that I cannot make fun of those explanations. Which is how I'll finish out this post. I'll be taking primarily from <a href="http://aldengonzalez.mlblogs.com/2013/11/15/voters-chime-in-on-their-al-mvp-ballots/" target="_blank">this article</a> by Alden Gonzalez, which compiles a few voters' explanations.<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>Jeff Wilson* (Fort Worth Star-Telegram): 1. Cabrera, 2. Chris Davis, 3. Trout</b> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Mike Trout can do things on a baseball field that Miguel Cabrera can’t. I’m not that blind. But for a second straight year, Cabrera posted fabulous offensive numbers, ones that please the traditional baseball crowd and ones that even Sabermatricians agree are pretty impressive. And he did so for a contender. I recognize that Trout wasn't the least bit responsible for the Angels’ lousy season. Injuries, questionable signings and an owner who doesn't get it doomed them. But he also didn't play in meaningful games for all but a week or two in May. Cabrera’s Tigers won the AL Central, and he hit more homers and drove in more runs against their main rival, Cleveland, than any other team. I also believe, as do many baseball people, that Cabrera isn't the defensive lump at third base that he’s perceived to be. Add it all up, and Cabrera was my MVP. The man who kept him from a second straight Triple Crown, Chris Davis, also played meaningful games all season and was my second pick. I had Trout third, though not without considerable thought of placing him higher.</blockquote>
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This is your basic "Contention is All Important" argument. At least, he gave Trout thought. Giving Cabrera extra points for his production against a specific team is even more insane. He also had more plate appearances against the Indians than most other teams because the Tigers play the Indians more! They are in the same division!<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>Jeff Fletcher (Orange County Register): 1. Cabrera, 2. Trout, 3. Davis</b> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b></b>I was a supporter of Trout over Cabrera last year, but this year I felt like the offensive gap was even wider, too big for Trout to overcome with his advantages defensively and on the bases. Also, I was impressed by Cabrera’s 1.311 OPS with runners in scoring position. (Trout’s was .993.) Regardless of the different number of opportunities each had, that’s a big gap in production at the times when games are won. While I don’t believe “clutch performance” is a skill or predictive, the MVP is about what you did, not what you can do again.</blockquote>
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Hitting with RISP? Really? Aren't we past that yet? You even say it's not a skill! YOU SAY IT'S NOT A SKILL!! If it's not a skill, what is it? Could it be LUCK? Random variation? You're giving out an MVP for that?<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>Phil Rogers (MLB.com): 1. Cabrera, 2. Trout, 3. Donaldson</b> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b></b>You wouldn’t think somebody could be better than they were during a Triple Crown season but Miguel Cabrera found a way to raise his game, maybe because he had a little more help in the Detroit lineup. He was an easy choice over Mike Trout for me, in large because I think that the MVP should come from a playoff team, especially now that we’re in an era in which one of every three teams goes to the playoffs. Winning matters but records being equal I still probably would have taken Cabrera over Trout. You can’t replace a guy who hits day in and day out like this guy, even if he does have some rough edges.</blockquote>
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More "MVP must come from a playoff team" silliness here, but the real standout part is the fact that he says that having even more teams reach the postseason now makes that even more important in judging an MVP. What? So, since it's easier to do now, it's even more valuable? That doesn't make any sense.<br />
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<b>John Hickey (Oakland Tribune): 1. Donaldson, 2. Cabrera, 3. Davis (Trout 4th)</b> </blockquote>
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To me, the key part of the award is “Valuable.” It’s not Most Outstanding Player, it’s not Player of the Year, in which case(s) Trout and Cabrera would dead heat. Both were terrific. As good as Trout was, the Angels finished 18 games out. There’s not much value in finishing third. Cabrera’s value was that the Tigers won their division. My first place vote went to the A’s Josh Donaldson, even over Cabrera, because Cabrera was surrounded by a much superior lineup than was Donaldson. Such was Donaldson’s value, in my mind, that without him Oakland would have been a middle-of-the-road finisher. Donaldson wasn't the best player. He was the most valuable.</blockquote>
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Even if it was Player of the Year, Cabrera and Trout would be in a dead heat? Really? I know hitting is easy to quantify, but there are other parts of the game too, you know.<br />
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<b>Bill Ballou (Worcester Telegram & Gazette): 1. Davis, 2. Cabrera, 3. Donaldson (Trout 7th) </b></blockquote>
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I am a strict constructionist re: “valuable”. If the award were Player of the Year, Trout would get my vote. I’m of the school that in order to have “value” you have to help your team be good, at least to the point of contending. The Angels didn’t truly contend. To fully develop that logic, players from non-contenders should not be listed on the ballot at all, but the BBWAA insists that we fill out all 10 slots, so I did, even though I did not think there were 10 worthy candidates from contending teams.</blockquote>
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If this was a war and not an award given out to millionaires playing a kid's game, Bill Ballou would be a war criminal. Trout SEVENTH? At least the other guys simply used contention as a bonus factor that pushed Cabrera over the top, leaving Trout second or third. Meanwhile, he has Chris Davis over Cabrera! Davis was not only inferior to Cabrera, but his team only contended in the loosest sense of the word. The Orioles finished 12 games out of the division and 6.5 out of the Wild Card. The Tigers actually did make the postseason! Ballou isn't even consistent with his own argument! He voted Cano fourth! The Yankees were terrible! They had a NEGATIVE Run Differential! Bill Ballou, I hate you.<br />
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<b>Ken Rosenthal (FOX Sports): 1. Trout, 2. Cabrera, 3. Donaldson</b> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I’m just wondering, what is it going to take for Trout to win an MVP? Another writer said it well — he is this generation’s Mantle. I generally prefer my MVP to come from a contender, but why should Trout be held responsible for the failings of his owner, general manager, manager and teammates? I love Cabrera, but Trout is far superior as an all-around player and, when you put it all together, more valuable. </blockquote>
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<b>Tim Brown (Yahoo! Sports): 1. Trout, 2. Cabrera, 3. Donaldson</b> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In its simplest terms, my first-place vote went to the most complete player in the game. While Mike Trout did not necessarily hit with Miguel Cabrera, he was so far superior outside the batter’s box that I believed it more than covered that ground. The issue of “value” continues to be kicked around. My view is this: The best player carries the most value.</blockquote>
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Ahhh, sanity. I needed to read that. I love these guys.<br />
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Finally, a bonus bit of madness from <a href="http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/goold-why-i-voted-for-molina-as-nl-mvp/article_74ef3d15-1b7e-5f40-9048-dae5b58667bf.html" target="_blank">Derrick Goold</a>, on his NL MVP voting thought process. He's a Cardinals guy and voted for Yadier Molina. While it may seem like a homer pick, it's actually defensible. That's not the crazy part. He also gave some thought to Matt Carpenter and here's his "logic":<br />
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When starting the centrifugal process of distilling all of the statistics, research, and reporting into one ballot for the National League Most Valuable Player award, I had one name foremost on my mind. </blockquote>
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That’s right, Rogers Hornsby. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Hall of Famer and Roarin’ 20s Cardinals great won two MVPs in his career (1925 with the Cardinals) and, as fictitious as it is, won the Decade Triple Crown for the 1920s. He was one of the most dominant players of his era, and he did most of it while playing second base for the Cardinals. This year, the Cardinals second baseman Matt Carpenter had a season that by many measures came as close to Hornsby as any second baseman had in generations. Carpenter had a year where he broke a record set by Stan Musial, one set by Albert Pujols, and had the kind of success as a leadoff hitter that rivaled any Cardinals leadoff hitter in the past five decades. But it was this Hornsby bit that stayed with me. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
If you go to Baseball-Reference.com and search for the highest single-season WAR (Wins Above Replacement, as calculated by B-R.com’s formula) from a Cardinals second baseman, you’ll find Hornsby has the five “best” seasons. They are: 12.1, 10.8, 10.1, 10.0, and 9.6. Hornsby has six of the top seven, interrupted only by Frankie Frisch’s 9.2 WAR in 1927. And then there is Carpenter, at No. 8. His WAR for this past season was 6.6, right behind Hornsby’s 6.7 in 1923. I recognize this search compared Cardinals against Cardinals and its connection to this year’s MVP vote was non-existent. It did put Carpenter’s season in perspective, and had me wondering if maybe he was the MVP of the league.</blockquote>
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I... what? I can't... That's... I mean...<br />
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I give up.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-55239376838270344292013-11-20T12:00:00.000-05:002013-11-20T12:00:07.321-05:00Team Postmortem: New York Mets<b>Record:</b> 74-88, -65 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary: </b>The Mets only won one more game than the our previous team but in reality the Mets and Phillies are franchises headed in much different directions. The Phillies are coming off a run of contention and now looking to be mediocre for a while. Meanwhile, the Mets have been mediocre for years but are looking to have a bright future. For now though, the 2013 club was mediocre with flashes of future promise.<br />
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The Mets' offense struggled in 2013 by and large. They scored 619 runs, 23rd in baseball, with a triple slash of .237/.306/.366. Their wRC+ of 89 was also 23rd, but actually things are even worse at the plate with a wOBA .297 (29th!!). So where did those runs come from? Incredible baserunning. I'm serious. The Mets were the best baserunning team in baseball with a BsR of 21.4. To the Mets' credit, they could take a walk as their BB% was 12th in baseball at 8.2%, but they also struck out the fourth most frequently in baseball at 22.3%. They Mets also possessed next to no power with an ISO of 129 (27th). Of course, one wonders how much Citi Field, a notorious pitcher's park, had an effect on that. Certainly it seemed to, as their home splits ( ISO 119, wOBA 281, wRC+ 83) are worse than away (138, .312, 96). Those numbers, if expanded to a full season, would rank 18th, 17th, and 16th. Ultimately, though, the opposition is held in check by the same ballpark when facing the Mets, so they can't saddle all their woes on the park. The offense was lead by the continued awesomeness of the oft-forgotten David Wright. Wright hit .307/.390/.514(!) with a 207 ISO, 391 wOBA (!), and wRC+ of 155. His 6.0 fWAR ranks fifth among MLB 3rd basemen, despite missing six weeks of the season with a hamstring injury. Wright is one of the best players in the game, and no one seems to remember it. The Mets also got solid performances out of second baseman Daniel Murphy (WRC+ 106, 3.0 fWAR) and a freakish must-be-a-fluke season out of Marlon Byrd (wRC+ 136, 3.5 fWAR).<br />
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On the other hand, the Mets can certainly pitch. The staff allowed 684 runs (15th in baseball) and posted a 3.79 FIP (11th), 3.86 xFIP (17th), 7.37 K/9 (20th), and an incredible 2.79 BB/9 (7th). Thats a damn fine staff for a team not ready to contend quite yet. So let's look at a few of the starters that contributed to that. Jon Niese had a season in which... okay, I'm just kidding. We're talking about Matt Harvey. Matt Harvey is God. Before his injury, Harvey was the best pitcher in baseball. Period. He struck out everyone (9.64 K/9) and walked no one (BB/9 1.56). His FIP of 2.00 was the best in baseball (Kershaw is next at 2.39). xFIP? Also best in baseball at 2.63 (King Felix is next at 2.66). Harvey's fastball was said to cure cancer. This was only his second season. He's 24. I could spend an entire post talking about his stuff and I may just do that at some point. His needing TJ surgery was the worst thing to happen to baseball this season. The Mets also got a solid season out of Jon Niese (3.58 FIP), saw continued development in Dillon Gee, and broke top prospect Zack Wheeler (who should end up as part of a dominant one-two punch with Harvey atop the Mets rotation... now sadly delayed until 2015) into the majors.<br />
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By mid-way through the 2013 season, things were looking up for Mets fans. Sure the current team was mediocre but there was real hope for contention in 2014. Harvey was God; Wheeler was on his way; pitcher Noah Snydergaard was dominating AA; and catcher Travis d'Arnaud had destroyed AAA and been promoted, perhaps prematurely, to the Majors, but had oodles of potential. On top of that, going into 2014, the Mets would have money available, finally freed of obligations like Jason Bay, Johan Santana, and Bernie Madoff. Get the right complementary pieces and they could certainly contend! Then Matt Harvey got hurt and Mets fans wept. However, they shouldn't lose hope. Harvey's injury may push their window back a bit, but being good--even great--again certainly appears to be in the Mets' near future. By 2015, Harvey will be back, Snydergaard should be in the rotation, and Wheeler and d'Arnaud will have had a full MLB season to develop. That's not to say respectability isn't impossible even in 2014. The Mets seem like they are ready to start spending in preparation for a big 2015 push, and if they do so well, they may surprise a few people even next season.<br />
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<b>MVP:</b> Matt Harvey, 6.1 fWAR<br />
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<b>LVP:</b> Mike Baxter, -0.7 fWAR<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm:</b> The Mets have graduated alot of their top prospects recently, most notably of course being Matt Harvey. Yet they still have a solid farm system, ranked at 16th by Baseball America going into the season--and Bleacher Reports Post-Trade Deadline list had them holding steady there. The system has already added Zack Wheeler, Wilmer Flores, and Travis d'Arnaud to the major league roster and joining them soon could be Noah Snydergaard and Rafael Montero. This youth movement, particuarly the pitching, is the reason for most of the optimism in Queens.<br />
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Noah Snydergaard is the prize of the remaining prospects. The big 21-year-old righthander throws a fastball that clocks in at 96mph, with a power curveball and nasty changeup. If all goes well, he should make the Mets rotation--along with Harvey and Wheeler --a true force that'll strike fear in the hearts of the National League by 2015. He split time between A+ and AA this season and absolutely crushed both levels. In 12 starts in AA he struck out 9.05 batters-per nine and walked only 2.26 per-nine with a 3.11 ERA and 2.60 FIP. In AAA, he was even better with 11.50 K/9 and 2.00 BB/9 in 11 starts (although with a 3.00 ERA and 3.24 FIP). Snydergaard isn't quite ready for the majors yet. He needs to finish polishing his secondary stuff and get stretched out more; he posted 103.2 IP in 2012 and 117.2 in 2013. I'd expect him to certainly make AAA during 2014 and possibly see the majors in September. Expect him to arrive in full by 2015, when Matt Harvey also will be back.<br />
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Rafeal Montero is a 22-year-old right hander with a fastball that sits in the low-90s but has touched 94-95, along with a slider and changeup. While not possessing as high a ceiling as Snydergaard (Montero projects more of a #3 type as a ceiling... which frankly, behind Wheeler, Harvey and Snydergaard is potentially still insane), Montero is closer to the majors, splitting time between AA and AAA this season. A command specialist who pounds the zone, Montero walks very few. In AA, his BB/9 was a mere 1.35 and in AAA it was an impressive 2.54. His time AAA is enlightening in another way as well. He posted a 3.05 ERA and 2.87 while calling Las Vegas home, one of the most offensively high-octane environments in the league. Fun note: Zack Wheeler's ERA in Las Vegas? 3.93. He'll start the season in AAA, but should see the majors before long.<br />
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<b>If APOD Was GM:</b> It's clear that the Mets were originally targeting 2014 for a return to over .500 baseball and even contention. Losing Harvey for the season has certainly put a kink in that plan but it doesn't mean it should be abandoned. While October may be much more unlikely now, the Mets can spend their newly recovered financial resources to shore up the team now, both for improvement in 2014 and outright contention in 2015. Two targets are pretty obvious. The Mets had one of the worst offensive outfields in baseball in 2013; they ranked 28th in wOBA at .302 and 23rd in wRC+ at 93. A lot of that offense came from a freaky good season from Marlon Byrd (I know) who was traded to the Pirates. That's an area in which the Mets would like to improve and, what do you know, two of the top free agents of the off-season are outfielders! I would expect the Mets to run hard at Sin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury will command the most money, for sure, but his defense is a nice add for the spacious Citi Field. Choo would be cheaper, but a poorer defender probably less suited for Queens. Also, with Harvey on the shelf, the Mets will need to fill some holes in the rotation as they wait for Harvey to return (and the rest of the young guns to arrive). Trading for a Price type would be ill-advised, instead I expect the Mets to go for a buy-low candidate who could rebound. An excellent option would be Phil Hughes. Hughes will never be the Super-Ace that Yankee fans once dreamed he would be, but thats not to say he can't be useful, even good, again. His biggest problem over the past few season has been being homer-prone (1.65 HR/9 in 2012, 1.48 in 2013), a problem exacerbated by pitching in Yankee Stadium. A move to the NL--and to a pitcher friendly park like Citi Field--could be just what he needs.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-30043884687691033792013-11-19T12:00:00.000-05:002013-11-19T12:00:10.543-05:00Trading David Price, or Others Do My Work for MeFree Agency isn't the only way to improve your team during the off-season. While Jacoby Ellsbury and Robinson Cano unsurprisingly dominate the discussions of the free agent market, the biggest player available by trade is David Price. Price is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, won the Cy Young in 2012, is 28 years old and has two years of team control left before he hits Free Agency himself. Due to the way the Rays have to run their team, they will not be able to afford to extend him and will almost certainly be trading him for a haul of young talent while he's at what might be the peak of his value, much as they did with James Shields last year. Acquiring David Price will make any team better--even significantly so--but the cost in prospects (and the money to sign him long term) will be extremely high.<br />
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I was going to write about what kind of packages I thought the Rays might be able to extract from other teams for Price, but upon doing some research I came across an excellent series of articles by Daniel Russell over at <a href="http://www.draysbay.com/" target="_blank">DRaysBay</a>, a truly wonderful Rays-focused blog. Realizing that there was no way I could top that, I thought I'd simply link those of you reading here to that series. What makes his approach unique is that he doesn't simply suggest what he thinks teams might offer the Rays. That's been done plenty of times across all corners of the internet during trade seasons and often suffers from the fact that fans naturally often overvalue their own assets while undervaluing other teams. Instead, Daniel reaches out to authors of other team-specific blogs at SB Nation and discusses possible trades with them, complete with offers and counter-offers. It's a refreshing and informative approach and one that I'd like to see used more often. So, without further ado, here's the series:<br />
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<a href="http://www.draysbay.com/2013/10/18/4850292/gauging-interest-in-david-price-part-1" target="_blank">Gauging Interest In David Price, Part 1</a> (Mariners, Cubs, Rangers)<br />
<a href="http://www.draysbay.com/2013/10/21/4859162/gauging-interest-in-david-price-part-2-minnesota-atlanta-and-arizona" target="_blank">Part 2</a> (Twins, Braves, Diamondbacks)<br />
<a href="http://www.draysbay.com/2013/10/24/5022326/gauging-interest-in-david-price-part-3-pittsburgh-pirates-los-angeles-angels" target="_blank">Part 3</a> (Pirates, Angels)<br />
<a href="http://www.draysbay.com/2013/10/29/5024336/gauging-interest-in-david-price-part-4-cleveland-indians-cincinnati-reds" target="_blank">Part 4</a> (Indians, Reds)<br />
<a href="http://www.draysbay.com/2013/11/4/5050828/gauging-interest-in-david-price-part-5-new-york-mets-philadelphia-phillies-washington-nationals" target="_blank">Part 5</a> (Mets, Phillies, Nationals)<br />
<a href="http://www.draysbay.com/2013/11/7/5068948/david-price-trade-part-6-los-angeles-dodgers-st-louis-cardinals-houston-astros" target="_blank">Part 6</a> (Dodgers, Cardinals, Astros)<br />
<a href="http://www.draysbay.com/2013/11/15/5107592/gauging-interest-in-david-price-part-7-everyone-else" target="_blank">Part 7</a> (Giants, Marlins, Padres, Brewers, Rockies, White Sox, Royals, Tigers, Athletics)<br />
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Seriously, you all should read the entire series. It's some fantastic work. My biggest take away from it is just how hard it probably is for real GMs to make trades. Even in these hypothetical talks, rarely did the two sides come to any semblance of agreement, since everyone wanted to 'win' the trade. Russell clearly wanted a wealth of talent for Price and those he spoke to wanted to get Price while giving up as little as possible. The next time I find myself muttering about how I'd like to see the Red Sox trade for Giancarlo Stanton, I'm going to think back to these articles.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-53353730001486093572013-11-18T12:00:00.000-05:002013-11-18T12:00:07.548-05:00Team Postmortem: Philadelphia Phillies<b>Record: </b> 73-89, -139 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary: </b>They say baseball is cyclical. The idea certainly has merit. Generally, when a team has had a period of sustained success, there comes a time, as the core of that team ages, that the team declines a bit as it reloads and rebuilds. This can be mitigated or held off if your team has infinite money (the Yankees) or an amazingly smart front office (the Rays). Unfortunately for Phillies fans, while the team has a lot of money, it's not infinite, and their Front Office may be the dumbest in baseball. As it stands, the Phillies are coming off of a terrible season. They are old, under-performing, and laden with ridiculously awful contracts. We'll start, as always, by looking at the team that went on the field and then we'll tear into GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. a bit.<br />
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As a team, the Phillies sat 26th in Runs Scored with 610 and a batting line of .248/.306/.384. That's pretty awful and a far cry from the 713 runs they scored in 2011 when the team won 103 games. The biggest change for the offense? It wasn't power, because although the team's ISO in 2013 was a low 135, it was only 142 in 2011. The biggest change was in walk rate. In 2011, the Phillies BB% was 8.6% (9th in baseball). In 2013, that number plummeted to 6.9% (26th), and the team's GM commented to the effect of, "I don’t care about walks, I care about production.” Looks like those might have been tied together, Ruben. The team was lead by homegrown veteran Chase Utley. Utley finally managed to have a health(ier) season, appearing in 131 games, his most since 2009, putting up a still excellent 126 wRC+. He's still a well-above-average player, but is getting older (he'll be 35) and his body is showing signs of breaking down (games played last three seasons: 115, 103, 83). The Phils were also lucky enough to see breakout campaigns by Domonic Brown (.351 wOBA, wRC+ 123, 27 HR) and rookie Darin Ruf (11.3% BB%, 254 wOBA, wRC+ 125 in 73 games--although with very poor defense). Unfortunately, the team also let John Mayberry and his 286 OBP into 134 games and actually paid money for Delmon Young (-1.0 fWAR) for a whole 80 games. One cannot discuss the Phillies' offense without mentioning Ryan Howard. Howard performed a bit better in 2013 overall, but also set career worsts in BB% (7.3%) and ISO (.199). Fortunately, the Phillies aren't paying $25M to an rapidly declining, oft-injured, 34-year-old should-be-DH with a 0.4 fWAR this season. What? They are? Huh.<br />
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The Phillies fared only marginally better on the mound. They allowed the sixth most runs in baseball with 749. Their 3.94 FIP as a staff ranked 19th in baseball and were 23rd in xFIP with 4.00. Cliff Lee led the staff, continuing to put up the dominant numbers he's become known for, throwing 222.2 innings of 2.82 FIP/2.78 xFIP ball, along with excellent peripherals--8.97 K/9 and an amazing 1.29 BB/9. Cole Hamels completed the excellent one-two punch atop the rotation with 220 innings of 3.26 FIP pitching. This is an excellent, if expensive (Lee made $25M and Hamels $19.5M) top of the rotation and plenty of teams would love to have that raw production. Unfortunately, the rest of the rotation was mediocre to awful. Roy Halladay saw his career fall apart before the very eyes of the fans at Citizen Bank Park. He suffered from severe shoulder problems during the season and ended up going under the knife, missing the majority of May, all of June and July, and most August. When he did pitch, the results were awful: 7.40 K/9, 5.23 BB/9, 1.74 HR/9, 6.14 FIP, and -0.8 fWAR. To compound things, the bullpen was a disaster for the Phillies. Their FIP (4.06) and xFIP (4.29) were both 28th in baseball. The teams below them are the Astros and Cubs, who are each rebuilding and, thus, don't particularly care about a bullpen yet. Closer Jonathan Papelbon's peripherals have been declining--he just posted the worst K/9 of his career at 8.32--and so has his fastball velocity. Papelbon averaged 92 mph in 2013, while as recently as 2011, that was 95 mph. He is signed through 2015 at $13M a year, with an easily attainable $13M vesting option for 2016. He is a reliever. Amaro is an idiot.<br />
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The Phillies are terrible right now. Their front office is well-known for being extremely resistant to analytics and stuck in the past. Ruben Amaro, Jr. appears to have a complete inability to read the market, handing out long-term, exorbitantly priced contracts like they were candy over the last few years. Now the Phillies have an aging, incredibly expensive roster and absolutely no financial flexibility to supplement it. Forget 2014, the Phils already have over $80M committed to the <b>2015 </b>club and over $60M to the 2016 one. The Ryan Howard contract has been the subject of internet mockery since day one, and has looked even worse than people imagined. Last off-season, at a time when the Phils should have been blowing it up after a .500 finish and the signs and portents well on display, they instead committed $144M through 2018 (with a vesting option for 2019) to Cole Hamels. Hamels is still a good pitcher right now, but for a franchise full of albatross contracts, adding another one--particularly to a pitcher who'll be 36 when the contract expires--seems like a bad idea. To make matters worse, Ruben Amaro, Jr. still seems to think his team is a contender. He, for the most part, refused to entertain any trades during the season (it took him until past the deadline to agree to move Michael Young, who was a pending free agent and awful). When he did consider a trade, such as for Cliff Lee, he revealed that either he really had no intention of moving anyone (because he believed the team could contend in 2014) or had absolutely no idea how to read the market, since he expected any team to not only give up multiple blue chip prospects, but take on the entire contract ($25M/yr through 2016) as well, which is madness. It may be now that their window to rebuild has passed and now they will be stuck desperately clinging to hope of mediocrity until the massive contracts start to expire.<br />
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<b>Team MVP: </b>Cliff Lee, 5.1 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP: </b>Delmon Young, -1.0 fWAR<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm:</b> After finishing strong for multiple seasons (thus low draft picks), signing plentiful Free Agents, and making aggressive trades for veterans, it is actually impressive that the Phillies' farm system is only mediocre, rather than abjectly horrible. Going into the season, Baseball America ranked them 24th in Baseball; more recently, Bleacher Report felt they've done a good enough job in the draft and with the few trades they did make to rank them 17th post-trade deadline. That's still not helpful, given their situation, but it's better than nothing.<br />
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Maikel Franco is a 21-year-old 1B/3B prospect who had the big breakout campaign in 2013. He split the season between A+ and AA, showing impressive power in both levels with a combined 31 home runs and 936 OPS. He still needs to would on his eye at the plate with only 6.9% walk rate at A+ and 3.4% at AA. Still, the power potential is certainly there. The problem is where he plays. 23-year-old Cody Asche is likely to open the season at third base for the Phillies, and, while his bat is weaker than Franco's, his defense looks to be league average. Most of the reports that I've read peg Franco as possessing poor range and foot speed, which is likely to regress further as he ages, forcing him to move across the diamond, where his bat could still play. The problem with that is Ryan Howard and his immovable contract.<br />
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Jesse Biddle, 21, is a big left-hander who possesses a four-pitch arsenal consisting of a fastball, a curveball, a slider, and a changeup. He had a mixed season in AA in 2013. He started out strong with an ERA under 2.00 through April, but then suffered from illness and a foot injury that sidetracked his season; he had a 4.12 ERA the rest of the way. Still he possesses good durability (he's surpassed 130 IP in each of his last three seasons), and excellent swing and miss stuff with a 10.02 K/9 in 2013. However, his command needs a lot of work with a 5.33 BB/9. There's still a lot of potential there and he has the upside of a #2 or #3 pitcher who can eat a lot of innings.<br />
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<b>If APOD Was GM:</b> The Phillies aren't going to be contenders in 2014, despite what Ruben Amaro would have you think. Not in 2015 either. Probably not in 2016 either. If the Phils spend money extremely well, get very lucky, stay healthy, and hit all their most optimistic performance projections, they might, <i>might</i>, end up over .500 next season. <i>Maybe </i>the Nationals will have an even more unlucky season than they did in 2013 and <i>maybe </i>the Pirates and Reds will fall apart. Then <i>maybe </i>the Phils will be a long shot for the Wild Card in 2014. After that, things will get even worse; the Mets could be pretty awesome by 2015 and other rebuilding teams like the Cubs could be potentially young and awesome by then. The Phillies will be older and worse. The Braves aren't going anywhere. Nor are the Nationals.<br />
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The point of all this is that the Phils' outlook is horrible in the near term. The clubs in their division are all younger with brighter futures, and there could be a number of other good, young clubs entering contention for Wild Card slots. It's time to blow it up and rebuild a younger, leaner, better team. Unfortunately, the prime opportunity to rebuild was last off-season, when the club could have traded Lee (eating some money), Utley, and Hamels (rather than signing him to a ridiculous contract), and gotten a heckuva prospect haul. Now, the Phillies are locked into a ton of near-immovable contracts and a mediocre farm system and the Dodgers wont be picking up the phone this time. Hamels and Lee could bring back some excellent prospects, but only if the Phillies ate a ton of money--so much so that I doubt the ownership group would go for it, despite it being the best chance for a success going forward--so I'll assume that's not an option. The only choice, then, is to hang on and pray to get lucky. Or build a time machine.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-7187316487399606692013-11-15T12:00:00.000-05:002013-11-18T03:15:43.756-05:00Team Postmortem: Seattle Mariners<b>Record:</b> 71-91, -130 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> I'll be honest. I've not been looking forward to this one. Too many of the best writers out there (Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan) are Mariners guys, and I pale in comparison in terms of knowing the team, writing talent and analytical talent... soooo everything! But here we are. The 2013 Mariners were not very good. In fact, they were a pretty bad team. By Run Differential, they were only a hair less bad than Miami. The sad thing about this is that this was supposedly an actual attempt to have a winning ballclub rather than just another rebuilding year. So yeah, that didn't go well.<br />
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Offensively, it may be tempting to say this was the best Seattle club in a long time. After all, the 188 homeruns they hit were the most for a Mariners team since the 2000 team hit 198. Unfortunately, home runs aren't everything. The 2013 Mariners only scored 624 runs (22nd in MLB) and while they showed excellent patience with a 8.6% walk rate (8th), they also struck out 21.9% of the time (26th), pegging them for an overall K/BB of 0.39 (20th). Despite the homers, their overall offense performance was rather poor: 307 wOBA (20th) and 92 wRC+ (20th). The highlight for the team was the continued emergence of Kyle Seager, who hit 260/388/426 with a 113 wRC+. The young third baseman showed improvement in just about every offensive category, particularly improving his walk rate (9.8% vs 7.1% last year). Also promising in limited action was rookie shortstop Brad Miller with a 103 wRC+. Unfortunately, the team also gave time to the corpse of Jason Bay (68 games, 204/298/393, 91 wRC+) and the vapor-bat of Brendan Ryan (wRC+ 42 in 87 games).<br />
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On the other side of the ball, the Mariners were either awesome or horrible with little in between. Overall, the team was above average with a 7.97 K/9 (7th), 2.94 BB/9 (15th), 3.89 FIP (14th), 3.72 xFIP (10th). One should note that the difference between the Mariners' FIP and their actual ERA of 4.32 is the largest gap in the majors this season. The culprit is that they were the worst defensive team in baseball (-11.6 UZR/150). The stars of the show were Felix Hernandez and Hishashi Iwakuma. King Felix was his usual Cy Young-caliber self, if not even better. He stuck out everyone (9.51 K/9) and walked almost nobody (2.03 BB/9) and got all the groundballs (51.4%). His FIP of 2.61 was actually the best of his career. Iwakuma also had a breakout sophomore season. His K/9 stayed about the same (7.58), but he took a cleaver to his walk rate, dropping his BB/9 from 3.09 to a minuscule 1.72. His impressive FIP of 3.44 and workhorse-like 219 innings make is 2015 $7M option an easy pickup. Unfortunately, after them it gets fairly ugly with people like Joe Saunders (4.72 FIP) and Aaron Harang (4.69) getting a significant number of starts. One other positive note is that highly touted prospects James Paxton and Taijuan Walker made their debuts (three and four starts respectively) and were impressive in their cups of coffee.<br />
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The 2013 campaign was certainly a failure, especially because it was meant to finish at the very least over .500. There is some reason for optimism going forward. The positional players are rather young and could, hopefully, continue to come into their own (though time is running out for some, like Justin Smoak, who is quickly looking to be a washout). With the arrivals of Paxton and Walker joining King Felix and Iwakuma (and, hopefully soon, Danny Hultzen), the Mariners could conceivably have one of the best rotations in baseball in 2014. The real problem is that it's starting to look like GM Jack Zduriencik may not be able to build a whole team. He, in my opinion, too quickly abandoned the idea of building a team around pitching and defense and switched gears going for Home Runs and "Leadership" in his complementary players. Unfortunately, that was about all those players could do, leading to a team filled with useless scrubs with some power instead of useful all-around players (for an example of this done right, see the Pirates). Worse yet is his inability to manage a 40-man roster, bringing up non-40-man prospects when a player hits the DL for even a minor injury, forcing players to be released when those players return. A prime example was Mike Carp, who was DFA'd to make for... Joe Saunders. Yeah. And Carp? Well, he was a core piece of the Red Sox run. On top of that, to be successful a GM needs a support team of smart, excellent people, and Jack Z. has shown a tendency to fire front office people (and managers--this off-season, the Mariners will be hiring their third manager in Jack Z.'s five years as GM) to cover his own mistakes, which is going to make it hard to gather top talent. Plus building a young core is a noble endeavor, but you have to complement that with smart signings (the lack of which we've discussed a bit) and smart trades, which haven't been going well for the Mariners either. For example, they traded Pineda (who, granted, has been injured) for Jesus Montero, who has been awful, was suspended for steroids, and looks like a complete bust. While things aren't completely hopeless going into 2014, odds are that without a drastic change in approach, there will be only marginal improvement in the on-field product.<br />
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<b>Team MVP</b>: Felix Hernandez, 6.0 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP:</b> Endy Chavez, -1.3 fWAR<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm:</b> Despite the troubles in Safeco and the Front Office, the Mariners still possess an excellent farm system (ranked 9th in Bleacher Report's post-MiLB season rankings). Many of their top prospects got time in the majors this season, including catcher Mike Zunino and pitchers James Paxton and Taijuan Walker. The biggest piece of bad news for the farm was Danny Hultzen (ranked Seattle's #3 prospect going into the season by Fangraphs) pretty much losing the entire season to injuries. The Mariners have notoriously struggled at converting prospects to actual major-league players, but hopefully some of these players will help change that.<br />
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We'll start off looking at #1 prospect Taijuan Walker. Walker, who sadly is not a Texas prospect, is a 21-year-old right-handed starter and a potential Ace in the making. Walker sports excellent fastball velocity (in his three ML starts, he averaged 94-95, and touched 98), with a excellent changeup and a developing curveball. He spent the bulk of 2013 between AA and AAA putting up excellent numbers as one of (if not the) youngest pitcher in the levels. He posted incredible strikeout rates (10.29 K/9 in AA, 10.5 in AAA), but struggles with command (BB/9 3.21 and 4.24). He earned a cup of coffee in September, making three starts with a impressive FIP of 2.25 and 3.80 xFIP. He could probably use another half-season in AAA to continue to develop his control, but the Mariners may aggressively promote him to the majors and hope Hernandez and Iwakuma can help him refine that control. His ceiling is that of a true #1 starter.<br />
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James Paxton is a 24-year-old southpaw with a fastball that has above-average velocity for a lefty (he averages about 95 mph), a solid curveball with plus-plus potential, and an improving changeup. He spent the bulk of the season in AAA where he finally started to tame his control issues (3.58 BB/9 in AAA in 2013, as opposed to 4.57 in AA and 4.82 in A in previous seasons). He will need to continue to work on that, however. Like Walker, he impressed in his call-up in 2013. I'd guess Paxton opens the year in the major-league rotation. If everything goes right, he has a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter, but he could end up in the bullpen if things don't go so well.<br />
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<b>If APOD Was GM: </b>First off, forget the worship of the All-Mighty Home Run. With that out of the way, I'd accept that the Mariners are probably not contending for the playoffs in 2014, but could shortly thereafter. The most important thing to do is not mortgage the young talent that has been developed by making a trade for someone like, oh, I don't know, David Price. I would certainly stay away from Robison Cano. I would make a run at Jacoby Ellsbury or Choo if the deal feels right. Both players would improve the team's offense (and, with Ellsbury, it's defense as well) and are in the right stage of their careers to be a big asset as the kids continue to develop. Also, I take <a href="http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/10/18/a-radical-proposal-for-the-seattle-mariners/">Jeff Sullivan's advice for manager</a> because that's just crazy enough to work. Or fail spectacularly. Either way.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-72305663319445885702013-11-14T12:00:00.000-05:002013-11-18T03:08:24.264-05:00More or Less Scary than J.P. Arencibia, Starting CatcherSo, yesterday I had a small exchange with Dan Szymborski on Twitter. He had done an article for ESPN listing free agents who scare him, then tweeted:<br />
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Did not include Arencibia, but I'd obviously be scared of him too.<br />
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) <a href="https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/statuses/400710173032857601">November 13, 2013</a></blockquote>
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For reference, J.P. Arencibia spent 2013 as the starting catcher for the Toronto Blue Jays. He was, to be kind, abysmal. He hit--and I use that term loosely--.194/.227/.365 with a wRC+ of 57. Look at that OBP! It is not a typo. It's .227. Yet he got into 134 games and had almost 500 PAs. The only thing that kept him from being the worst player in the game was being a catcher and hitting with some power (21 HRs). I asked a pertinent question:<br />
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<a href="https://twitter.com/APODionysus">@APODionysus</a> Arencibia obviously. Samara kills you in a week, Arencibia 4 ABs every day.<br />
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) <a href="https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/statuses/400711116591861760">November 13, 2013</a></blockquote>
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Now, I am not above going for cheap laughs here at Baseball Arcade and this exchange gave me an idea. So, now I will take a look at a number of famous horror creatures and determine which is scarier: J.P. Arencibia or the monster (look at me, resisting the obvious "Monster or Fictional Creature from Horror Franchise" joke... oops).<br />
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<b><u>Samara (<i>The Ring</i>)</u></b><br />
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Well, Dan already covered this on in his tweet. I'll just let that stand.<br />
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<b>Scarier</b>: Arencibia<br />
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<b><u>Jason Voorhees (<i>Friday the 13th</i> series)</u></b><br />
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Well, both of these guys wear a mask. They both possess great physical power. Odds are they are both terrible at baseball despite their raw strength. While Arencibia is human and may get hurt and thus miss some games on the Disabled List, Jason's invulnerability means that he'd be guaranteed to start every game. What manager would bench Jason Voorhees? Do you want to tell him he can't play? To make matters worse, Jason wears a hockey mask. If Darin Erstad has taught us anything, it's that the media loves to insufferably wax poetic about the "grit" and "toughness" of players who have backgrounds in other sports like football or hockey.<br />
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<b>Scarier:</b> Jason Voorhees<br />
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<b><u>Freddy Krueger (<i>Nightmare on Elm Street</i> series)</u></b><br />
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Freddy, for all his powers, is only able to get at you in your dreams. Arencibia haunts your waking hours. Human beings spend a far greater portion of the day awake than they do asleep. Thus, this is a no-brainer. I will say that living on Elm Street and being a fan of a team with Arencibia as its starting catcher is probably the worst thing. There'd be no escape.<br />
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<b>Scarier:</b> Arencibia</div>
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<b><u>Pinhead (<i>Hellraiser </i>series)</u></b><br />
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Arencibia only tortures you during the course of the baseball season. Once the offseason begins, he's out of your mind. Pinhead tortures you for eternity. Although which form of torture is more severe is certainly open to debate, the sheer duration of Pinhead's torture will overcome any difference in the intensity of the actual anguish.<br />
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<b>Scarier:</b> Pinhead<br />
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<b><u>The Mummy (really?)</u></b><br />
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Both are slow, lumbering creatures and could be outrun by just about anyone. Even a blogger. The Mummy has the tendency to strangle the life out of you. Having Arencibia on your team makes you want to strangle yourself. The Mummy brings Biblical plagues along with him. Arencibia, however, is a plague in and of himself.<br />
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<b>Scarier:</b> Tie<br />
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<b><u>Zombies (Various)</u></b><br />
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Zombie movies, the good ones, are often more about social commentary than they are about the flesh-eating undead. The zombies are merely engines that drive societal collapse and allow us to examine that society by seeing humans without it. In these films, it is always Man who is the real monster. J.P. Arencibia is a Man.<br />
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<b>Scarier:</b> Arencibia<br />
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<b><u>Cthulhu (H. P. Lovecraft's stories)</u></b><br />
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Cthulhu is an ancient, unknowable, and unearthly horror. The very sight of Him (It?) can drive a man insane. However, the very sight of Arencibia's stat line can also drive a man insane. Cthulhu can only be awoken under rare and specific conditions, while Arencibia is guaranteed to start nearly every day. It's also worth noting that this strange message was found scrawled on a fan's scorecard in Rogers Centre: <i>That is not dead which can eternal lie / And with strange catchers even rallies may die.</i> Not sure what's up with that. However, Cthulhu has the trump card with the whole "Dooming the Entire World" thing. Arencibia only dooms the hopes of Blue Jays fans.<br />
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<b>Scarier</b>: Cthulhu<br />
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There you have it. J.P. Arencibia holds up well against even some of the horror greats. Have a favorite monster? Tell me in the comments and I'll compare them.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-43532948795865587612013-11-13T12:00:00.000-05:002013-11-13T15:19:26.302-05:00Team Postmortem: Minnesota Twins<b>Record:</b> 66-96, -174 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> Let's start with a bit of history. Back when Bill Smith took over as General Manager in 2007, the Twins were a good team with a highly regarded player development system. They had had a great farm system and a solid cheap core of talent. By the end of the 2011 season, Smith had destroyed the farm system, filled the roster with overpriced and under-performing contracts, and, to top it off, had gotten essentially nothing out of the Johan Santana trade. Smith was fired, and replaced--as crazy as this sounds--with his predecessor, Terry Ryan. Ryan immediately set to work rebuilding the franchise from the ground up, letting players like Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer leave to Free Agency and trading guys like Francisco Liriano, Ben Revere, and Denard Span. The downside of this is that the Major League team is a bit of a wasteland, basically consisting of Joe Mauer (still awesome) and a bunch of filler players or prospects who are not quite ready yet.<br />
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Offensively, the 2013 Twins were, essentially, mediocre. As a team, they hit 242/312/280 with a 307 wOBA (21st in the Majors, tied with the Mariners) and 92 wRC+ (also 21st, and likewise tied with Seattle). The good news is that the team shows an excellent willingness to take a walk with a rate of 8.6%, 7th best in the Majors. The bad news is that also strike out all the time (23.0%, 29th in baseball). Essentially, they are excellent at taking pitches out of the zone (their O-Swing is 29.5%, 6th lowest), but they are also taking a lot of pitches in the zone (Z-Swing is 62.7%, 2nd lowest). This could be a recipe for success--indeed, the Red Sox took a similar approach--but the Twins also don't make contact when they do swing, with a contact % of 77.8% (25th).<br />
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Most of their offensive contributions came from Joe Mauer, who is still one of the best players in the game. The catcher (CATCHER!) hit 324/404/476 and posted an excellent 144 wRC+. His walk rate is down a bit, and his strikeouts are up, but he also hit for his best power (144 ISO) since his ridiculous 2009 7.7 fWAR campaign. Again, he's a catcher. One with an excellent defensive reputation. This nets him a fantastic 5.2 fWAR. Another bright spot was second baseman Brian Dozier, who, in his sophomore season, continued to improve at the plate, hitting 244/312/414. While he still needs to work on his plate discipline (8.3% BB%, 19.3% K%), his power looks real and his .183 ISO ranks 5th among second basemen. If Dozier continues to develop, he'll be a big part of the Twins' future.<br />
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The pitching side of the team was particularly ugly. The Twins have a reputation for an affinity with soft-tossing control types, and this proved true in 2013. While the Twins' staff posted excellent control numbers with a BB% of 7.3%, the 6th best mark in the majors, they also failed to strike anyone out earning them a K rate of 15.7%, the worst mark in the game. To survive like that, you need a groundball-heavy approach and the Twins' staff ranked only 21st in that category at 42.4%. As a whole, the staff gave up the second most runs in baseball with 788 and ranked poorly in FIP (4.23, 27th) and xFIP (4.28, 29th). Nothing exemplifies the Twins' rotation issues like the fact that Kevin Correa (career 4.50 FIP; 4.40 in 2013) was their de facto Ace. By fWAR their best pitcher was Mike Pelfrey--yes, him--who posted a 5.19 ERA (albeit with a 3.99 FIP... but a 4.54 xFIP). On the good news front (there isn't much), top prospect Kyle Gibson, now a year removed form Tommy John surgery, dominated AAA and earned himself a promotion to the majors. He did struggle once he got to Minnesota, but should continue to make strides in 2014. When healthy (which wasn't often), Sam Deduno took a step forward, cutting way down on his walks (3.42 BB/9 vs 6.04 in 2012), and continued to post excellent groundball rates at 59.7%.<br />
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While the product in Minnesota was terrible, there are a lot of reasons for optimism for Twins fans. Terry Ryan's rebuilding of the farm has now made the Twins farm system as one of the best in the game, ranked #1 in Bleacher Reports' End-of-Season rankings. It's an extremely deep system led by two of the best prospects in the game: Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Help for the rotation is on the way as well, with the arrival of Kyle Gibson, an excellent season in AA for Alex Meyer, plus 2013 first round draft pick Kohl Stewart. If these prospects can make the transition to the majors over the next two years, the Twins could soon be a force to be reckoned with.<br />
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<b>Team MVP:</b> Joe Mauer, 5.2 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP: </b>Aaron Hicks, -0.7 fWAR<br />
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Down On The Farm: I already pointed out that the Twins have one of the best, if not the best, farm systems in the game right now. It's an enviable position to be in, particularly considering how the farm looked just a few years ago. Even more enviable is the raw potential in the two guys I'm about to discuss<br />
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Byron Buxton, a 19-year-old centerfielder, is the consensus #1 prospect in all of baseball going into 2014. He possesses amazing athleticism, plus-plus speed, excellent defense, a strong arm, patience at the plate, and above-average raw power potential. Buxton destroyed both A (341/431/559, 176 wRC+, 13.7% BB%) and A+ (326/415/476, 155 wRC+, 12.6% BB%) in 2013. He also stole 55 bases across the two levels. The Twins are sending him the AFL in the off-season, which may seem odd given that he's already played in far more games in 2013 than during any other year of his life, but Fangraphs' Marc Hulet suspects that this is in order to prepare him to open 2014 in AA. Buxton looks to be the real deal, a potential superstar centerfielder. Comparing anyone to Mike Trout is, of course, patently ridiculous, but at nineteen Mike Trout also split time between A and A+. Buxton's numbers are pretty much equal to, and in some areas superior to, those of Trout at the same phase of his career. Again, that is not to say Buxton will be at Trout's level, because Trout is a rare breed, but it's still fun to think about.<br />
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Miguel Sano is a 20-year-old 3rd base prospect who's claim to fame is simply power. Tons and tons of power. The right-handed hitter is reported to be one of the best power hitters in all of the minor leagues. He's got raw power to all fields and shows a good knowledge of the strike zone and a willingness to take a walk. In 2013, he split time between A+ and AA, showing crazy power in both. In A+ he hit 330/424/655 with a 325 ISO (!!), 16 homeruns, and a wRC+ of 203. In AA, he continued to show impressive power, but struggled to make contact against the more advanced breaking pitches, going 236/344/571 with a 335 ISO (!!!!), 19 HRs, and a 145 wRC+. His biggest area to work on seems to be cutting down on swings and misses, as he struck out 25.1% of the time in A+ and 29.3% in AA.<br />
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<b>If APOD was GM</b>: Honestly, this portion of these write-ups is getting a little repetitive with all these clubs that are in the middle of rebuilding and are a few years away from putting it all together. The plan remains the same. Don't worry about the team on the field as much as focus on continuing to prep the farm system to facilitate a push in a few years. Sorry, guys. These sections should get more interesting once we get higher up the list, or hit criminally stupid teams like the Phillies.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-88082071942299342192013-11-12T12:41:00.000-05:002013-11-12T12:43:10.140-05:00Does Yuniesky Betancourt Possess the X-Gene?While writing the postmortem for the Milwaukee Brewers, I noticed that they were employing Yuniesky Betancourt. Yuni is one of the worst players in baseball and has been since 2008. He can't hit at all and, lately, plays terrible defense. Despite being a shortstop for the vast majority of his career, the Brewers actually had him playing predominantly first base. He was a .240 OBP first baseman, a fact that is so sad, I can't even begin to process it. However, that's not the point of this article, at least not directly. When I clicked on Yuni's Fangraphs player page, wanting to review his career, I noticed he had played for the Brewers before. Not only that, but somehow he had been employed by the Royals on two separate occasions as well. Betancourt was horrible in each of those stints, yet both teams elected to give him another shot, despite knowing more than most how awful he is. The only reasonable explanation that I can think of is that Yuniesky Betancourt is a Mutant.<br />
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Let's take a look at the history of Betancourt. He's originally from Cuba, where he was considered to be one of the most exciting young players in the Cuban League. Seeking a better life for himself, Betancourt fled Cuba on a speedboat on December 4, 2003. Escaping Cuba is never a safe or easy task. Failing at an attempt can end badly both for the individual and his family. This makes me feel a little bad about all the terrible things I'm going to say about him as a ballplayer. He ended up establishing residence in Mexico, where he demonstrated his amazing talents--especially defensively. In January 2005, at 22 years of age, he was signed by the Seattle Mariners.<br />
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Yuni's Major League career started decently enough. In 2006, his first full season, he hit .289/.310/.403. The following year, he went .289/.308/.418. He made amazing plays in the field--the sort of guy who showed up regularly in <i>Baseball Tonight</i>'s Web Gems. There were warning signs already however. He had a hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, swinging often at bad pitches. Despite hitting .289, he never walked, posting a walk rate of 2.7% and 2.9% respectively. Despite making amazing plays in the field, advanced metrics like UZR--not developed yet at the time--now show that he wasn't actually all that great defensively. He was solid enough especially playing shortstop, a premium position, netting him 1.6 and 1.4 fWAR in his first two full seasons. The wheels began to fall off in 2008. He hit .279/.300./392, still showing a complete lack of plate discipline. To make matters worse, his defense began to dramatically erode, posting the second worst UZR/150 among shortstops that year. He was worth 0.4 fWAR and certainly fans hoped it was just an off year.<br />
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But then 2009 was even worse for him. He started the year hitting .250/.278/.330. He still didn't walk, but now he couldn't even get hits. On July 10, the Mariners traded him to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for pitching prospects Derrick Saito and Dan Cortes. The change of scenery didn't help and Yuni finished the year with a batting line of .245/.274/.351 with horrid defense and a -2.4 fWAR, making him the worst everyday player in baseball. 2010 went a little better. He still couldn't hit or walk, but he flashed a tiny bit of power, posting a .259/.288/.405 line. He was worth 0.6 fWAR, although bWAR was harsher on him at -0.9. The Royals had, wisely, had enough and traded him to the Milwaukee Brewers during the off-season as part of the Zack Greinke deal. Betancourt continued to be a horrible player for the Brewers in 2011. He walked only 2.7% of the time and struck out 10.8% of the time. His BA was .252. His OBP of .271 was the worst among all MLB shortstops. He did have a memorable stretch during the Brewers’ postseason run, hitting .310 with a homerun and six RBIs in the playoffs. It would probably be the best time of his playing career for Yuniesky. Unfortunately, the rest of the season Yuniesky was literally a nothing ballplayer--worth exactly 0.0 fWAR (though his bWAR was -0.5). Despite being paid $3M, his production could be replaced by any theoretical AAA player making the minimum.<br />
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Here's where things get strange and we first glimpse Yuniesky's possible Mutant powers. After 2011, Yuni was a free agent for the first time. He was signed by... the Kansas City Royals. For $2M. One would assume that they had learned their lesson. They had certainly seemed happy to package him and his salary with Zack Greinke when they traded the star pitcher to Milwaukee. Yet, here they were signing up for another round. Yuni quickly reminded the Royals why they had sent him out of town. He hit an abysmal .228/.256/.400 and was worth -1.0 fWAR (-1.1 bWAR), playing in only 57 games. The Royals gave him his unconditional release on August 14, 2012. This brings us to 2013. He spent spring training with the Philadelphia Phillies on a minor league contract, but was released before the season began. He was then signed, yet again, by the Milwaukee Brewers. He hit .212/.240/.355. Look at that line! He played first base and, at times, batted cleanup! He was worth -1.8 fWAR and -1.8 bWAR.<br />
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Yuniesky Betancourt is a horrible ballplayer. He has been for years. 2007 was the last year when he was clearly an above-replacement level performer. That's six consecutive seasons of being below replacement. Yet, two different teams acquired him twice. Each team gladly got rid of him the first time after he performed horribly for them. Each team signed him again. Why? Is he just a nice guy? Does he have incriminating photos of someone? Are GMs just still in love with the potential he showed as a 22 year old in Mexico and dream of being the ones to finally unlock it? I posit a different theory: he is a Mutant. I think his power is to cause people to forget their previous experiences with him; a selective memory loss, of sorts. For those GMs, each time is the first time they picked him up. Yuni is a free agent again this off-season. It would seem that it's the Mariners' turn to repeat past mistakes, although one can't count out the Royals. Dayton Moore certainly needs a new terrible player on his team now that Jeff Francoeur is no longer there.<br />
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Or Yuniesky could coach baseball at Xavier's School for the Gifted.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-123324009981510912013-11-11T13:14:00.000-05:002013-11-11T13:16:56.589-05:00Team Postmortem: Chicago Cubs<b>Record:</b> 66-96, -87 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> From one Chicago club to the other. Where the White Sox have only just begun to rebuild, the Cubs started their effort last off-season where they traded almost all their established talent making any money -- and finished the job at the Trade Deadline. What's left is, essentially, a AAA team on a Major League roster. That said, the Cubs are on the right track, but let's start by taking a look at the team on the field.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>We'll start with the offense. When you field a bunch of AAA players, essentially, you'd expect to have trouble scoring runs, and the Cubs did. Their 603 Runs ranks 28th in baseball, to pair with an anemic .238/.300/.392 battling line and a 87 wRC+ (26th in baseball). Their BB% of 7.9% sits 22nd in Baseball and is certainly a major area that will need improvement. However, there is actually a touch of good news. To my surprise, the Cubs actually showed power in 2013. They hit 172 homeruns in 2013, which ranks 9th and had an ISO of 154 (6th). Unfortunately, the 300 OBP mean no one was on base when it happened. Looking at their position players, it's shocking how much turnover the team had. Only six players managed to get into even 100 games; but that is the nature of the being aggressive sellers at the deadline. Leading the Out of Nowhere Power Brigade was Nate Schierholtz. Nate clubbed 21 home runs in 2013 after a previous career high of... nine. He had a .219 ISO. Unfortunately, like the rest of the Cubs, he didn't walk (5.8%) and struck out too much (18.7%) and, perhaps most unfortunately, no one bit on him at the trade deadline. In terms of guys who may be part of the Cubs' future, Anthony Rizzo held up the power end of his game, hitting 23 home runs with a 186 ISO and improving his walk rate to 11.0% (up from 7.3% last season). For him to take the next step to living up to his potential, he'll need to figure out how to hit left-handed pitching, against whom he had a .282 wOBA and 72 wRC+ (as opposed to righties who he hit for .345 and 115). On the bad news front, once-hyped prospect Starlin Castro continued to regress. He hit .245/.284/.347 with a wRC+ of 70. His BB% was a mere 4.3% while he struck out 18.3% of the time. These are career worsts in every statistic. He's only 23, but it seems like Castro will never live up to the hype.<br />
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Now for the pitching. By looking at purely at Runs Allowed, the Cubs' pitching wasn't that bad for the cellar-dwellers. They allowed 689 runs, putting them 18th in MLB. Looking at their peripherals makes it even worse, leading to a FIP of 4.10 (24th) and an xFIP of 4.13 (28th). However, the news isn't as bad as that as a lot of the damage was done by the Cubs' bullpen. Their starters' FIP of 4.03 actually ranks 13th, and their xFIP--an identical 4.03--is 19th. Conversely, their bullpen was one of the worst in baseball, ahead of only the Astros. Fortunately, when you are rebuilding, the pen is pretty much at the bottom of your priority list--home to purely trade bait. Jeff Samardzija is probably the best pitcher on the staff right now. His ERA of 4.34 may seem unsightly, but it masks solid peripherals. He had a K/9 of 9.01 and a BB/9 of 3.29 (up from his 2.89 in 2012, his ability to bring that back down will be an important factor going forward), and a solid GB% of 48.2%, but got very unlucky on home runs and balls in play with a HR/FB of 13.3% and had a career high BABIP of 3.14. As a result his FIP (3.77) and xFIP (3.45) are significantly better than his ERA. He's under club control through 2015, and the Cubs may look to extend him, particularly is they believe that he can improve his control.<br />
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While Samardzija was unlucky, Travis Wood got lucky. His 6.48 K/9 is terrible and while he had solid control with a BB/9 of 2.97, one would assume those numbers would belong to a pitch-to-contact groundball style pitcher. Wood is not that, with a GB% of 33.2%. His HR/FB of 6.9% is unsustainably lucky, leading to his FIP of 3.89 and, particularly, his xFIP of 4.50 to far exceed his 3.11 ERA. (Likewise, I'd expect his BABIP luck, which sat at 248 this season and 244 last year, to run out eventually.) He is young, has potential, and is under control until 2016, so the Cubs will continue to give him every shot to improve and contribute to the future.<br />
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Clearly, at the moment, the Cubs are a bad baseball team. However, there is reason for optimism going forward. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have done an excellent job rebuilding the farm system, which now sits as one of the best in the game. The Cubs have been drafting well since Theo and company took over prior to the 2012 season, and have made a number of shrewd trades. How many trades? Just during the 2013 season, they moved Alfonso Soriano, Matt Garza, Carlos Marmol, Scott Feldman, David DeJesus, and Scott Hairston for prospects. As a result, Bleacher Report ranked their farm system post-minor league season as 3rd in baseball. It's a deep system with some real talent. However, before Theo and company came in, it was a nearly empty system due to the dark Jim Hendry years; now a lot of the talent is still in the lower levels and there will be a few more years before the Cubs are respectable again. In the meantime, they will to continue to bolster the minor league system, look for Buy-Low candidates to flip at the 2014 Trade Deadline, and search for players to surround the upcoming younger players. Already there are rumors of going after Price, Ellsbury, and/or Choo. I would guess they are aiming for around 2015/2016 to be competitive. Can Theo Epstein bring a Ring to Chicago after doing so for Boston? I'll be rooting for them.<br />
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<b>Team MVP</b>: Wellington Castillo, 3.2 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP:</b> Shawn Camp, -0.8 fWAR<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm:</b> As I said, the Cubs have managed to build an excellent farm system. The good news, they may have the strongest crop of positional prospects in the game. However, they are lacking in pitching prospects at the moment, but a few more good trades and improvement in their recent draft picks could change that. Overall, it's a talented and deep system. If they can work out the pitching, it may end up the best system in baseball. As usual, we'll take a look at two of their top prospects.<br />
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Shortstop Javier Baez, 20 years old, is the Cubs #1 prospect and one of the top prospects in baseball. He has excellent bat speed and top-shelf raw power. He split the year between A+ and AA, impressing in both levels. In AA, he hit .299/.352/.650 with 20 homers (in only 53 games!), a .350 ISO and 185 wRC+. While the hitting ability is there, he still needs to work on his plate discipline with a 40/147 K/BB ratio. He'll start 2014 in the minors, but could quickly make struggling incumbent Starlin Castro nervous. The Cubs can afford to be patient with him, however.<br />
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Albert Almora is a 19-year-old centerfielder who was, unfortunately, limited to only 61 games this year due to a pair of injuries (a broken hamate bone in Spring, and a groin injury to end the season). The scouting reports I've read peg him as both an excellent defender and baserunner. In A-ball this season, he hit .329/.376/.466. He doesn't walk much (6.3%), but limits strikeouts (11.0%) and makes contact. He does have potential to be a 20/20 type guy. He'll probably start 2014 in A+ with a good chance for a mid-season promotion to AA.<br />
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<b>If APOD was GM:</b> There are two major things for the Cubs to look for this off-season. The first is players that they could sign to complement the upcoming homegrown core, with an eye towards 2015/2016. As such, there have already been rumors of them going after Choo or Ellsbury and even trading for Price. They don't have a lot of money tied up into anything else, and those players should still be good when the Cubs are ready. As for Price, as much as pitching is what the Cubs need most, I suspect that the price (heh) for him will be far too high, especially for the Cubs' plan of relying on homegrown talent. Take a long hard look at Ellsbury and Choo, but stay off Price.<br />
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The other move is to look for candidates to flip for additional prospects at the deadline. I fully expect this to comprise the bulk of the Cubs' off-season moves, and it's a smart plan. One pitcher I'd take a look at is Phil Hughes. Hughes just came off a disastrous season, but the potential was there once. The control is still there (BB/9 - 2.59), but Hughes was ruined by the longball over the past two seasons. On the plus side, a move to the NL could help him, but Wrigley isn't really a pitcher's park which may not help his HR/FB issues. He may not be the right piece (he makes more sense for the Mets), but there will be moves to be made.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-86938485037512362822013-11-08T03:26:00.000-05:002013-11-08T12:19:10.641-05:00Team Postmortem: Chicago White Sox<b>Record:</b> 63-99, -125 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> On the plus side, Ozzie Guillen isn't around anymore. On the negative side, this is a bad team. A bad team in a very competitive division. A bad team in a very competitive division with a horrible farm system. The immediate future of the White Sox isn't very bright, but at least their fans can enjoy watching Chris Sale pitch. Let's take a look.<br />
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First up, the offense. Or the lack thereof. Remember when the White Sox used to hit a ton of homeruns, but everyone in the mainstream media said they were good because of Podsednik and SmallBall or OzzieBall or whatever? (God, I miss Fire Joe Morgan) Yeah, those days are over. As a team they hit .249/.302/.378 with a wRC+ of 83, which puts them 29th in the majors ahead of only the Marlins--who, as we said, weren't even trying to win. Their combination of high strike-out rate (19.9% - 17th) and complete lack of walks (6.8% - 29th), to go along with no power (ISO .129 - 26th, SLG .378 - 25th), makes for just a terrible offensive show. The shell of Paul Konerko, once an offensive highlight for Chicago, posted the worst season of his career since 2003 with a wRC+ of 82, and his once prodigious power is entirely gone (.111 ISO - worst of his career, by far). The lack of production for a position like 1B, and the fact that every metric hated his defense (and has for a while), nets the former star a -1.8 fWAR. The rest of the team fared little better. Forget Qualified, let's set the minimum PA at, oh, say, 300 -- get ourselves anyone who appeared in 100 games. The only players with an above average wRC+ (and barely at that) were Alex Rios (wRC+ 103) who was traded and Adam Dunn (105), who is a DH (although the White Sox, perhaps due to insanity, let him in the field for 74 games) and, thus needs to hit a lot better than that and his 219/320/442 line.<br />
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On the Run Prevention side of things, the White Sox actually fared pretty well, especially compared to their anemic offense. Their 723 Runs Allowed left them 23rd in MLB, but RA doesn't tell the whole story. Their xFIP as a staff was 3.98 for 21st in MLB, better than the Orioles and Athletics. The staff posted excellent strikeout numbers with a 7.73 K/9 (11th) and did a similarly good job at preventing free passes with a BB/9 of 3.15 (12th). Their pitchers were, unfortunately, extremely prone to the long ball with an HR/9 of 1.13, the 27th worst mark in MLB. The star of the staff is, of course Chris Sale. Sale, 24, is one of the best pitchers in the game and getting better. In 2013, he posted a 9.49 K/9, 1.93 BB/9 with a 3.17 FIP and 2.95 xFIP, 5.1 fWAR. Look at those strikeouts. Look at that control. He's ridiculous. He's 24 and in the midst of a team-friendly deal that could keep him in Chicago through 2019 (maximum salary is a $13.5M team option for 2019). He is one of the most valuable trade assets in baseball, and one the ChiSox should not move as he is young and controlled enough to still be a factor when/if the White Sox are good again. Lost in the awesome that was Chris Sale was the performance of Jose Quintana. The 24-year-old lefty had a true Out of Nowhere season this year. Released by the New York Yankees and grabbed by the White Sox before the 2012 season, Quintana posted surprisingly good numbers in 2013: 2.52 BB/9, 3.82 FIP, 3.86 xFIP and 3.7 fWAR in 200 innings. However, he is a soft tosser with a fastball that sits at 91 mph and he has an only 'okay' K/9 at 7.38 (5.35 last season). This would seem to peg him as a high-control, pitch-to-contact guy, but his groundball number (42.5%) doesn't support that as a formula for success. Next year will be a test for him, to see whether the White Sox have truly found a surprise value or just caught lightning in a bottle.<br />
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The writing is on the wall for the White Sox. They have a poor Major League roster, and their farm system is currently one of the worst in the game. Going into the 2013, Baseball America pegged their system as 29th in the game. In Bleacher Report's post-Trade Deadline rankings, they still sat a 26th. Ultimately, it's time for a lengthy rebuild process, and it seems new GM Rick Hahn sees it that way as well, trading Jake Peavy, Alex Rios, Matt Thorton and Jesse Crain during the season. There's a long road still to go in digging the farm system out of the hole former GM Kenny Williams left it in, but it's a start. The problem remains that many of those who remain on the roster are either un-tradable due to a combination of salary, poor performance, and injury history (Danks, Dunn, Alexi Rameriz), or the White Sox wouldn't want to move them (Chris Sale). The White Sox will have to be very shrewd going forward and hope to get lucky selling high on any players who over-perform and drafting/developing well. Until then, enjoy Chris Sale.<br />
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<b>Team MVP:</b> Chris Sale, 5.1 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP:</b> Paul Konerko, -1.8 fWAR<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm:</b> The White Sox farm system was a mixed bag this year. As I said, it's an overall poor system, and while a few prospects took steps forward, a number of others such as Courtney Hawkins and Carlos Sanchez fell back quite a bit. The White Sox did do some solid drafting, adding Tim Anderson, and made a lot of trades to try and bolster the depth, but it's still very much a work in progress. We'll take a look at two of the good stories here.<br />
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Erik Johnson, 24, is a big right-hander with a mid-90s fastball, an excellent curve-ball along with a solid slider and an in-progress changeup. He spent most of his season split between AA and AAA. In the minors, he posted dominating numbers (AA: 7.87 K/9, 2.23 BB/9, 3.19 FIP; AAA: 8.95 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 2.59 FIP). He did struggle in a cup of coffee in the majors, going five starts with a 5.86 K/9, 3.58 BB/9 and an unsightly HR/9 of 1.63. His ERA of 3.25 masks his struggles with a 5.40 FIP and 4.73 xFIP. If he can translate his minor league dominance to more major league success, he should be a solid cost-controlled no. 2 or 3 to join Chris Sale in the rotation going forward.<br />
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Marcus Semien was the big riser for the White Sox this season. The 23-year-old middle infield prospect (he played shortstop predominately in the minors), started the year in AA where he utterly dominated his competition. He posted a BB rate of 17.4% and a K rate of 13.7%, along with a 903 OPS and 167 wRC+. He was then promoted to AAA, where he was challenged a bit more with a 9.9% BB rate, 16.9% K rate and a 123 wRC+. The drop in walk rate was, perhaps, an indication that he needed more seasoning, but the White Sox were impressed enough to call him up when the rosters expanded in September. Semien struggled in his 21 games in the majors, hitting 261/268/406 with a 77 wRC+ and, perhaps most importantly, a 1.4% BB rate and 31.0% K rate. Nevertheless, the prospect retains a promising future, and should probably return to AAA to start 2014 so he can work on his plate discipline.<br />
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<b>If APOD Was GM:</b> Honestly, there's not much that can really be done in the 2014 off-season that isn't already being done. The White Sox are nowhere near contention, and most of their trade-able assets have already been moved. The only player that might be movable would be Alexei Rameriz, who doesn't hit that much of late, but if a team has an injury to their shortstop in spring training, they might get desperate enough to move a piece for him. If the Yankees, for example, decide they are going to really try to contend next season and Jeter looks still broken, Rameriz would be a significant improvement over Nunez and the rest, assuming they don't sign someone like Stephen Drew. Seriously. Rameriz was worth 3.1 fWAR (mostly due to defense, despite hitting for a 86 wRC+), while the Yankees got -1.6 fWAR out of that position. Other than that, I'd look for any buy-low candidates to flip at the deadline.<br />
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Also, can a GM fire a broadcaster? Because I'd fire Hawk.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-28613852752061808522013-11-06T11:14:00.000-05:002013-11-08T03:21:37.068-05:00Team Postmortem: Miami Marlins<b>Record:</b> 62-100, -133 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> Oh boy. This team. It will come as no surprise that Miami was horrible again after unloading half their team to the Toronto Blue Jays, who were in Go For It Now mode (more on that when we get to them). Miami lost 100 games, after all. Miami certainly has more potential on the field than the Astros, but as we'll get to, there is far less reason for long term hope in the Marlins' case. First, let's look at the team on the field.<br />
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We'll start with the offense. This gets pretty ugly, folks. The Marlins posted the worst offensive numbers in baseball. Their conventional triple slash line as a team was .280/.293/.335, ranking dead last in each category in the majors. Their ISO of .104, wRC+ of 72, .279 wOBA, 95 home runs and 513 runs also all are dead last. Cumulatively, you are looking at a -.07 fWAR as a team. Holy shit. Let's look at the good: #2 prospect, outfielder Christian Yelich made his professional debut late in the season, getting into 62 games, and he acquitted himself well. He showed excellent on-base skills for a 21-year-old rookie who started the year in AA, posting an 11.4% walk rate and solid contact skills leading to a 288 BAA and 370 OBP. Unfortunately, he also struck out too often at 24.2% and showed absolutely no power with a mere .108 ISO. Still it was enough to net him a 116 wRC+. This is actually fine if you consider his true position as centerfield--he played centerfield in the minors, but he has been playing left in the majors--and take into account his youth. Then there is, of course, Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is still the best position player in Miami and one of the best young players in baseball. Stanton, unfortunately, spent much of the year battling injuries that limited him to only 116 games and sapped much of his power dropping him to a 'mere' .231 ISO compared to his incredible .318 last season (if you perfer SLG it's .480 as opposed to 608). He did make up for it a bit by walking more often at 14.7% of PAs. Overall, he still hit for a wRC+ of 135, which may be a disappointment for his lofty standards (156 last season), but is still excellent. Odds are, when he's at full health next season, he'll return to being the monster he truly is.<br />
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That's pretty much it for the good news. The rest of it is too many ABs given to the likes of Juan Pierre (ha ha ha ha), Greg Dobbs (he's still in baseball?), and Placido Polanco (old man joke). But the worst? Young 'rookie' Adeiny Hechavarria. The shortstop has a strong defensive reputation, but, my oh my, that bat and, more specifically, that plate discipline. Adeiny got into 148 games for the Marlins despite "hitting" 227/267/298. (Those are not typos. I double checked.) His BB% was a horrifying 5.2% to go along with a 16.6% K rate. (This is worse than the Worst Case Scenario for Jose Iglesias.) Adeiny's -1.9 fWAR sits dead last among all position players in baseball. Yuck.<br />
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Now to the pitching. Here we have at least something truly positive to talk about. The 2013 Miami Marlins actually had a pretty good pitching staff. As a unit they produced a 7.26 K/9 (24th in MLB), 3.24 BB/9 (7th), 45.3% GB% (10th), 3.69 FIP (7th), 3.96 xFIP (20th), and 14.1 fWAR (17th). All in all, not bad. A lot of that is due, of course, to the pure awesome that is Jose Fernandez. The story of Jose Fernandez is probably known to most of you, but I'll summarize quickly. In 2012, he spent the season in the minors splitting time between A and A+ ball. Then, due to some late 2013 Spring Training injuries, the Marlins announced that he would open the season in the starting rotation. Of the Major League team. Skipping AA and AAA entirely. People generally assumed that that was insane. Turned out, the only thing insane was how well Fernandez performed. He started 27 games for Miami, posting a 9.75 K/9 along with a 3.02 BB/9. On top of that he had a 45.1% GB%, a HR/9 of 0.52 and a FIP of 2.73 (xFIP 3.08), culminating in 4.2 fWAR. Look at those numbers. Realize that he is 21 years old and skipped two levels. Be amazed. Again, he is only 21 years old, a rookie who skipped two levels, and was one of the 20 or so best starting pitchers in baseball in 2013. The rest of the staff included decent performances by Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez, as well as a career year for Ricky Nolasco (7.21 K/9 2.00 BB/9 3.59 FIP) before he was traded.<br />
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Overall, if you just looked at the team on the field and the prospects in the minors, you could argue that the Marlins are in a better position to build towards contention than the Houston Astros. Unfortunately, the Marlins have Jeff Loria as an owner. Loria is, without a doubt, the worst owner in Major League Baseball. He is the man who destroyed baseball in Montreal. He has a long and storied history in Miami of blowing up successful teams and sending the Marlins right back to the cellar. There's no need to recap the criminal nature of the previous off-season Fire Sale Trade to the Blue Jays, right after building an expensive, publically funded stadium. The saddest part of it? It actually makes baseball sense to have made that trade. If it was another owner, who had earned benefit of the doubt, that trade could be looked at in much the same way as the universally lauded Punto Trade pulled off by the Red Sox.<br />
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Unfortunately, Loria has long since burned through any and all good will and benefit of the doubt. One could think that he was doing what the Astros were doing, building a young core and THEN planning to spend money on surrounding that core with quality talent. But Loria has never spent money on the team--except briefly in order to show that he was serious in order to get the stadium funded, but then he traded all those players away. To make matters worse, Loria continued to embarrass the organization as the team spiraled to 100 losses, including getting into fights with season ticket holders after he moved signage in the park so it blocked their view of groundballs and vetoing the promotion of Chris Valaika after the prospect's assault accusation against hitting coach, Tino Martinez (a friend of Loria) forced the him to resign. I could go on and on about how bad Loria is as an owner, how meddlesome he is, and how many coaches and managers have butted heads with him. But I won't. The point is, the Marlins will never see sustained success as long as Jeffery Loria is allowed to own the team.<br />
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<b>Team MVP:</b> Jose Fernandez, 4.2 fWAR.<br />
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<b>Team LVP: </b> Adeiny Hechevarria, -1.9 fWAR (but really it's Loria)<br />
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<b>Down on the Farm: </b>Well, the graduations of top prospects Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich have thinned the depth a little bit, but there's still a number of solid prospects here--and likely to be more, as the Marlins can look forward to some high draft picks in their future. I'll take a look at a few of them.<br />
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Andrew Heany is a 22-year-old hard-throwing lefty. His fastball sits at 91-94, but can touch up to 96-97, with a solid slider and a changeup that projects to be above-average. His most promising skill is his excellent control, which is paired with solid strikeout and groundball potential. After starting the year on the DL with a lat strain, he began his season in A+, utterly dominating the level with a 9.63 K/9 and a BB/9 of 2.48 and a 0.88 ERA in 12 starts. He received a much deserved promotion to AA, where in 6 starts he did see his K numbers dip a bit, down to 6.15 K/9. However, he continued to show excellent control, keeping his BB/9 to 2.41 despite the more advanced opposition. The Marlins are likely to give him a long look during Spring Training; I suspect that he'll start the season in AA/AAA, but he should see the Majors before long.<br />
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Acquired from the Blue Jays as part of the Mega Trade, Jake Marisnick is a 22-year-old centerfielder. He projects as an above-average defender with a strong arm, and plus speed. After struggling in his first go against advanced pitching in AA in 2012 to the tune of a 79 wRC+, he went off in 2013. In 67 games with the Marlins AA club, he hit 294/358/504 with a wRC+ of 150. It's worth noting that the Blue Jays had tinkered with his swing mechanics, and some of his 2012 struggles may have been adjusting to the new swing. He still swings and misses too often (22.8% K-rate in AA in 2013), which will be something to work on. In keeping with the Marlins new "AAA? Whats that?" policy, he earned himself a promotion to the Majors and struggled in 40 games, posting a wRC+ of 29 in limited action. He still has some developing to do, but will likely do that developing in the Majors in 2014.<br />
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<b>If APOD was GM:</b> I'd quit.<br />
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What? I can't pull that card so early in the series? Well, screw you. <i>Fine</i>.<br />
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Well, I guess I'd shop Giancarlo Stanton. There's certainly no hurry to do so and his injuries this season may hurt his value a tiny bit (although most GMs won't be affected by it), but the sooner you pull the trigger the more years of cheap control he has and thus the more teams will move to get him. I definitely wouldn't move the face of the franchise for anything less than a king's ransom, however. Unfortunately, what I'd prefer to do is to try to lock him up to a long term Evan-Longoria-style deal (but more expensive, obviously), but neither Loria (because he's Loria) nor Stanton (he made his opinion of the Marlins clear after the Fire Sale) would allow such a contract.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-83046028440457150532013-11-04T11:55:00.001-05:002013-11-08T03:21:10.373-05:00Team Postmortem: Houston Astros<b>Record:</b> 51-111, -238 Run Differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> One of the biggest stories of last off-season, whether it got the most print or not, was the move of the Houston Astros to the American League. Teams change leagues rarely, so it was certainly interesting to see how the Astros fared in the transition. Unsurprisingly, not very well, posting their third consecutive 100+ loss season. They finished with a whopping -238 run differential, the worst such number since the 2010 Pirates. (To give you a sense of how uncommon this is, before that you had to go all the way back to the 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks.) So what went wrong?<br />
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We'll start with the pitching. Here are some of the Astros' team pitching stats and where they rank in the MLB: K/9 - 6.78 (28th), BB/9 - 3.89 (30th), HR/9 - 1.19 (28th), FIP - 4.67 (30th), xFIP - 4.48 (30th), fWAR - 1.6 (30th), RA - 848 (30th). That's pretty ugly. By fWAR, their most valuable starter was Bud Norris at 1.8, who was also no longer with the team by the trade deadline, having been shipped to the Baltimore Orioles. After that you have the shell of Erik Bedard and a slew of "Who?" players, none of whom look like long term solutions. The bullpen was even worse. How bad? FIP - 5.09, xFIP - 4.62, fWAR - -5.4. No, that that is not a typo. That is a negative 5.4 Wins Above Replacement. For comparison, the infamously bad 2009 Nationals bullpen was a mere -2.7 fWAR. The Astros had exactly one reliever with a postive fWAR, Jose Veras, who was also traded (to the Detroit Tigers) at the deadline. Everyone else was either at 0 or negative values.<br />
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The offense didn't fair much better. Some stats: OBP .299 (29th), SLG .375 (27th), wRC+ 86 (27th), fWAR 2.3 (29th). However, they did fair well with the longball, hitting 148 home runs, good for 20th in MLB, albeit with the caveat that Minute Maid Park is one of the more homer-happy parks in baseball. On the negative side, Jose Altuve--who went into the season as the Astros most promising postion player and Offical Guy Shorter Than Dustin Pedroia--took a step back in all categories. His OBP dropped from 340 to 316, his SLG from 299 to 262 and his wRC+ from 103 to 85. On the plus side, Jason Castro is one of the best catchers in baseball offensively. His wRC+ of 130 and 4.3 fWAR both rank 4th in baseball behind only Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, and Buster Posey. While Castro didn't improve his BB% this year (though it's still excellent: his BB% of 10.2 is 5th among MLB catchers), he did see a massive spike in his power. His SLG jumped up from 401 in 2012 to 485 in 2013. He hit 18 homers, as opposed to 6 (in only 200 fewer PAs), and 63 doubles (29). The rest of the team was pretty much dreck.<br />
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It's easy to look at these numbers and conclude that the Astros are a disgrace to baseball. It's easy to look at their revenue streams and their minuscule payroll (just over $21M for the entire team) and conclude, like many did after a certain Forbes article fanned the flames, that current owner Jim Crane is just out for the money and is ripping off the fanbase, Loria-style. That would be a mistake. The Astros have a plan in place. This is a massive rebuilding effort that is starting with building through the farm system. It's important to realize where the Astros were when Crane and GM Jeff Lunhow came to the team. Lunhow was hired December 8, 2011. The Astros had just lost 106 games with a terrible--and relatively expensive at $70M--team on the field. Going into that season, Baseball America had pegged the Astros farm system as the 26th in baseball. They had no present and no future. Since then Lunhow has committed to a new strategy: Invest heavily in the draft, hold on to prospects, and trade any major league players of value that won't be around when the team is good again. Build up a young, potent core and THEN spend money. Now, their team on the field is still awful, but their farm system has potential. Going into the 2013 season (before an excellent draft that included stars like Mark Appel, and a handful of deadline trades), Baseball America ranked their farm systems at the 9th in baseball. In a post-MiLB season assessment, Bleacher Report ranked it as the 2nd best system in baseball. There is, finally, a light at the end of the tunnel.<br />
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This is not to say that the Astros are going to be contenders soon. Many of their top prospects are still a while away from being ready for the majors--spending 2013 in Rookie or A ball. There is, as always, a lot of risk involved with relying on prospects. Will enough of them reach their potential? Will the team recognize when it is time the open the banks and make that move to bring in players to surround that core? Will the team spend that money on the right players? Contention, if it happens, is still several years away, but for the first time in a long time, there is hope. They may lose 100 games again next year, but they are heading in the right direction.<br />
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<b>Team MVP:</b> Jason Castro, 4.3 fWAR<br />
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<b>Team LVP:</b> J.D. Martinez, -1.1 fWAR<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm:</b> I'll shy away from 2013 1st Overall Pick Mark Appel as he hasn't actually had the opportunity to pitch much in pro ball yet, but he'll obviously be a player to keep an eye on. Instead I'll focus on two other players, who may have a big impact on the Astros' future.<br />
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George Springer is a 24-year-old center-fielder, with potential plus defense in center. He split time between AA and AAA this year, and succeeded in both--particularly dominating AAA. In his 62 games in that level he hit 311/424/625 with 18 homers, a wRC+ of 175. He improved his BB% to career high of 15.4% and finally started to cut down on his strikeouts to boot. On top of that, he was a threat on the basepaths, stealing 45 bases in 53 attempts between AA and AAA in 2013. I'd expect him to see the Majors in 2014.<br />
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2nd Base Prospect, Delino DeShields, Jr., 19, repeated High-A this season after struggling in 2012. He responded positively posting a wRC+ of 133 after a mere 90 in 2012. His BB% held pretty much steady at 10.7% (11.4% in 2012), but he cut his K% from 20.2 to 17.0. Power doesn't seem to be in his future, but he clearly has decent on-base skills--and speed. He stole 51 bases in 69 attempts. I'd imagine he'll start 2014 in AA, which will be a significant test.<br />
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<b>If APOD was GM:</b> Personally, if I was the Astros GM, I would mostly stay the course. Don't spend any significant money in Free Agency. Keep trying to develop young players, try to draft well, and look to trade any veterans with value at the deadline. The Astros are still quite a few years away from contention, so the focus needs to be on rebuilding that farm until the pieces are in place to start spending money again to put a contender on the field. I would look long and hard at the Free Agent Market for any significant Buy Lows, particularly among starting pitchers, who could be had for cheap one-year deals. If they can bounceback and have a good year, I would flip them at the deadline to a contender in exchange for more prospects. If they don't, well, they were Buy Lows for a reason and someone had to pitch.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905374709176706938.post-34662129000175973572013-11-04T11:44:00.000-05:002013-11-08T03:09:07.405-05:00Team Postmortems: An IntroductionOur first recurring feature here on Baseball Arcade will be the 2013 Team Postmortems. The genesis of the idea came about after I did my Games To Watch feature on the Penny Arcade Forums and went looking for off-season projects in a similar vein to keep the thread active. I remembered when, earlier in the season, I went on a rant on what a terrible GM Ruben Amaro, Jr is. TheScruple responded by saying he looked forward to my analysis on the 2014 Yankees. So I decided I could try my hand at breaking down all 30 MLB Clubs 2013 Seasons as well as their hopes going forward into 2014.<br />
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The Team Postmortems are my most ambitious project yet, so the early entries may be a little rocky as I find my 'voice'. I'll be posting on a M/W/F schedule, starting with the team with the worst record (the Houston Astros) and ending with the World Champion Boston Red Sox. The format for the entries is as follows:<br />
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<b>Record:</b> The teams regular season record and run differential<br />
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<b>Summary:</b> An overview on the team's 2013 season, looking into various players and performances, as well as a look at the state of the organization heading into 2014 and beyond.<br />
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<b>Team MVP/LVP: </b>Mostly a fun tidbit, the best and worst players on the team purely by fWAR. Yes, I'm aware WAR has it's flaws, but it serves our purpose in helping us be amazed by Mike Trout or horrified by Yuniesky Betancourt.<br />
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<b>Down On The Farm: </b>A look at the organization's farm system, highlighting two of the team's prospects.<br />
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<b>If APOD Was GM:</b> This one may get a name change. The idea here is that I take a look at a move or two <i>I </i>would make in the off-season if I was the team's General Manager. As I've written these, I quickly realized that there is a very good reason I'm not a GM - I have no idea what I'm doing. They have morphed into a more general look at what the team may do in the off-season. Expect a name change accordingly.APODionysushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14696764821970557668noreply@blogger.com0